Trade War

[Heinrich]

Declared by D Trump.

https://x.com/jc_limitless/status/1886032503632183531?s=61

[Melkor]

Declared by D Trump.

https://x.com/jc_limitless/status/1886032503632183531?s=61

Yeah we're facing a recession here. I just got back from 3 months layoff at CN, and possibly getting laid off again due to the trade war.

[james03]

It will be like last time.  A few weeks of tariffs, and then Canada will do a deal.

Canadian trade is pretty balanced.  Trump wants commitments from Canada to stop the illegal invasion from the north, and to clamp down on the Chinese fentynal trade.  It's a reasonable ask.  If the conservatives had their PM in charge, this never would have happened.

A problem which might prolong this is that you have Justin Castro still in charge, and he may want to burn it to the ground.

[james03]

Mexico cut a deal.  It's funny how this is mirroring the NAFTA fiasco.  When Justin Castro ticked off Trump, Mexico stabbed him in the back and immediately cut a deal with Trump.

In this case what Trump wants is perfectly reasonable.  Canada to police its borders and to work with the US to stop fentynal.  Once again Mexico makes the only sane move it has, while Justin Castro is an idiot.

[Optatus]

Another problem is if Trump cannot clearly articulate what he expects from the Canadian government.

From a Canadian's perspective (and a Canadian who is at least somewhat sympathetic to the Trump administration), none of us have any clear idea about what he wants. Initially it was about the border - and fair enough; I have no confidence whatsoever in the current federal government's vetting of immigrants and it is completely unacceptable that foreigners (international students in particular) overstaying their visitor's visa can simply disappear into cities like Brampton and Mississauga without fear of pursuit and deportation. This is something that the incoming government should take seriously and it is something that Canadians want.

Then there are Trump's remarks about subsidising Canada, which I find baffling. I think he may be referring to trade deficits, but this mostly comes from Canadian energy exports which the US already purchases at discounted rates. In any case, a trade deficit is not a subsidy.

There is also this strange business about Canada becoming the 51st state. We don't want it, I suspect most Americans don't want it, but it is something that Trump trots out now and again. Maybe he's just trying to dunk on us or be funny, but it is not a good strategy unless your intention is to alienate your friends. We understand perfectly well if you hate Trudeau and Freeland since we generally hate them as well, but Canadians don't deserve this kind of treatment and the only thing it will achieve is a loosening of ties between our countries. Canadians are already talking about decoupling insofar as possible from the US and forming stronger ties with Europe and CANZUK.

Now, as of this morning, Trump is complaining that Canada does not allow American banks to do business here. One wonders where the goalposts will move next.

All told, I think most of us have no idea what this is about. I assume that he's trying to appear tough to his base, and that's fine. Even some of his demands of Canada are good and I think most Canadians would be amenable to things like tightening our borders, getting tougher on crime, etc. But I don't think it is prudent to dump and clown on your friends. This trade war was completely unavoidable and it will harm both of us pointlessly.

[james03]

All told, I think most of us have no idea what this is about. I assume that he's trying to appear tough to his base, and that's fine. Even some of his demands of Canada are good and I think most Canadians would be amenable to things like tightening our borders, getting tougher on crime, etc. But I don't think it is prudent to dump and clown on your friends. This trade war was completely unavoidable and it will harm both of us pointlessly.

Trump said he'd rain hell on Hamas, but in reality his negotiator called Netty in on the Sabbath, and cussed him out.  Trump said he'd crush Russia with sanctions, but in reality cut off aid to Ukraine.  He told North Korea he had more missiles than them, and ended up in North Korea posing with Kim.  Trump recently said he wants to invade Panama, and Rubio just came back with a deal.  It's how he negotiates.  He starts by making insane demands, then he typically negotiates a very reasonable deal.  Mexico figured it out.

The problem here is Justin Castro.  The real target all along was Mexico, because they have to take back about 10 million people.  All Castro had to do is talk positively about making a deal on fentynal, and agree to increased cooperation with the DEA, and there would have been no tariffs on Canada.

[Optatus]

The problem here is Justin Castro.  The real target all along was Mexico, because they have to take back about 10 million people.  All Castro had to do is talk positively about making a deal on fentynal, and agree to increased cooperation with the DEA, and there would have been no tariffs on Canada.

I don't blame him, but Trudeau and his party are on the way out (thank God). Why punish both your neighbour and many of your own citizens on account of a PM and party who have already lost the mandate of their people and who will be gone in two months?

Being tough is good and we could do with more of that in Canada, but there is a time and a place for it. To the rest of the world who is watching this, the US is broadcasting that there is no treaty you might sign, no agreement you might come to even with the president who signed them that is sacred. Beyond the tariffs and whatever personal cost to myself and family, that is what I'm concerned about.

[james03]

I agree it might have not been the best move.  Speculating on my part, Trump and especially Vance are sincerely concerned about fentynal and wanted the smuggling stopped immediately.  For some reason Justin didn't want to go along with the plan.

Considering how Castro completely flubbed the NAFTA negotiations I'd keep an open mind to the fact that he completely screwed this up also.  One example, everyone knows that Trump values loyalty.  The little stunt Castro played where he had a cordial meeting with Trump in Canada, and then rushed out to the microphones to lambast Trump while Air Force One was going down the runway had a totally predictable response once Trump found out.  Everyone knew what was coming, including Mexico, which used it as an opportunity to cut a quick deal.

[Optatus]

I agree it might have not been the best move.  Speculating on my part, Trump and especially Vance are sincerely concerned about fentynal and wanted the smuggling stopped immediately.  For some reason Justin didn't want to go along with the plan.

Considering how Castro completely flubbed the NAFTA negotiations I'd keep an open mind to the fact that he completely screwed this up also.  One example, everyone knows that Trump values loyalty.  The little stunt Castro played where he had a cordial meeting with Trump in Canada, and then rushed out to the microphones to lambast Trump while Air Force One was going down the runway had a totally predictable response once Trump found out.  Everyone knew what was coming, including Mexico, which used it as an opportunity to cut a quick deal.

Surely you would agree with going harder at China, as the chief maker of fentynal - that is killing both our people - than on Canada then?

You are right to point out Trudeau's behaviour after the last round of agreements, which was completely unacceptable and disgraceful. Only a drama teacher does not understand that you should not come away from trade talks trying to get one up on your trade partner, especially when we owe said partner a lot - which we do. More so when that trade partner is Trump.

Yet my concern is this: which country on this planet will say that they should sign a treaty with the US in light of this fiasco? It grows beyond Canada and Mexico, since Trump is now barking at the UK and the EU. Personally, I enjoy American hegemony. The world order that we have enjoyed since WWII has been kind to Canadians and I am not eager to see it go. What happens if all of the US' allies question whether any deal they make with the US is treated seriously by the Americans? What happens if they go to China or India or elsewhere? To me, this is the real story about these tariffs.

[Optatus]

https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/03/politics/us-canada-trade-fentanyl-fact-check/index.html

Yes, yes, CNN and all that.

[james03]

Trade war over, Canada cut a deal.

In reality it is a 1 month pause on sanctions while Canada and the US negotiate.  Canada has agreed to upgrade border enforcement.

I think we'll eventually find out what this is all about.  Once the conservative government gets in, this will go away.  You don't see Trump putting tariffs on Argentina or El Salvador.

[Melkite]

What happens if all of the US' allies question whether any deal they make with the US is treated seriously by the Americans? What happens if they go to China or India or elsewhere? To me, this is the real story about these tariffs.

Hopefully, they realize this is a Trump thing more than it's an America thing.  If they can hold out for four years, things will get back to normal, if Vance is elected.  Good normal, not libtard normal.

[TradGranny]

Canada, Mexico, Columbia, Greenland and Panama have all complied with Trump.

What the controlled media (and those who still rely on them) are missing is called "The Art of the Deal".

[Optatus]

What happens if all of the US' allies question whether any deal they make with the US is treated seriously by the Americans? What happens if they go to China or India or elsewhere? To me, this is the real story about these tariffs.

Hopefully, they realize this is a Trump thing more than it's an America thing.  If they can hold out for four years, things will get back to normal, if Vance is elected.  Good normal, not libtard normal.

I have the same hope, but people are quite upset here. I do not think things will go back to normal, good or otherwise. I think we are seeing a re-calibration of the entire global political landscape.

Canada, Mexico, Columbia, Greenland and Panama have all complied with Trump.

What the controlled media (and those who still rely on them) are missing is called "The Art of the Deal".

In Canada's case: what has changed?

[TradGranny]

What happens if all of the US' allies question whether any deal they make with the US is treated seriously by the Americans? What happens if they go to China or India or elsewhere? To me, this is the real story about these tariffs.

Hopefully, they realize this is a Trump thing more than it's an America thing.  If they can hold out for four years, things will get back to normal, if Vance is elected.  Good normal, not libtard normal.

I have the same hope, but people are quite upset here. I do not think things will go back to normal, good or otherwise. I think we are seeing a re-calibration of the entire global political landscape.

Canada, Mexico, Columbia, Greenland and Panama have all complied with Trump.

What the controlled media (and those who still rely on them) are missing is called "The Art of the Deal".

In Canada's case: what has changed?

I was referring to Trudeau's humiliating visit to Maralago following Trump's joke about making Canada the 51st State, and allowing Justin to be governor. I predict that Turdeau will cowtow to Trump over the tariff. What choice does he have?