1. The other Apostolic Churches - the Oriental Orthodox, Eastern Orthodox, and Ancient Churches of the East - claim the exact same thing as the Catholics, as having an exclusive claim on being the True Church, so I have to "make a wager" against these other probabilities.
You're misunderstanding. The Orthodox admit those born Catholics can be saved as Catholic. See: "You ask, will the heterodox be saved... Why do you worry about them? They have a Saviour Who desires the salvation of every human being. He will take care of them." even from a relatively rigorist Orthodox site: http://orthodoxinfo.com/inquirers/metphil_heterodox.aspx That was from Theophan the Recluse.
. . .
But if the Catholic Church is right, you cannot be saved after lapsing to a separated group, unless you become Catholic again; that's a 50% unnecessary risk of eternal damnation, even if you believe Catholicism and Orthodoxy are equally probable. That's Paschal's Wager.
This one Saint doesn't actually answer the question that the Catholics will be saved but answers the question with a nonanswer of "God desires all men to be saved" and "trust in God."
How do you feel about the fact that a Liberal who has stated that the Orthodox Church's doctrine of homosexuality needs to be questioned, Metropolitan Kallistos Ware, says this:
"All the categorical strength and point of this aphorism lies in its tautology. Outside the Church there is no salvation, because salvation is the Church"...Does it therefore follow that anyone who is not visibly within the Church is necessarily damned? Of course not; still less does it follow that everyone who is visibly within the Church is necessarily saved....yet there may be members of the Church who are not visibly such, but whose membership is known to God alone.
If anyone is saved, he must in some sense be a member of the Church; in what sense, we cannot always say."
That's in addition to all the first millenium Saints who said the same:
Saint Gregory the Dialogist:
"Now the Holy Catholic Church proclaims that God cannot be truly worshipped save within herself, asserting that all they that are without her shall never be saved."
Saint Fulgentius:
"Most firmly hold and never doubt that not only pagans, but also all Jews, all heretics, and all schismatics who finish this life outside of the Catholic Church, will go into the eternal fire prepared for the devil and his angels."
Saint Cyprian:
"He who has turned his back on the Church of Christ shall not come to the rewards of Christ; he is an alien, a worldling, an enemy. You cannot have God for your Father if you have not the Church for your mother. Our Lord warns us when He says: `he that is not with Me is against Me, and he that gathereth not with Me scattereth.’ Whosoever breaks the peace and harmony of Christ acts against Christ; whoever gathers elsewhere than in the Church scatters the Church of Christ."
Saint Augustine:
"No man can find salvation except in the Catholic Church. Outside the Catholic Church one can have everything except salvation. One can have honor, one can have the sacraments, one can sing alleluia, one can answer amen, one can have faith in the Father and of the Son and of the Holy Spirit, and preach it too, but never, never can one find salvation except in the Catholic Church."
Saint Cyril of Alexandria:
"Woe to the world because of offences! for it must needs be that offences come: but woe to that man by whom the offence comes." For offences of this kind, caused I mean by unholy heretics, are not levelled against some single individual, but are aimed rather against the world, that is, against the inhabitants of the whole earth. And the inventors of such offences the blessed Paul rebukes, saying, "But in thus sinning against the brethren, and wounding their weak conscience, you sin against Christ." And that such offences might not prevail over the faithful, God somewhere spoke unto those who are the ambassadors of the upright word of truth, and skilful in teaching it, saying, "Go through My gates, and make a pathway for My people, and cast away the stones out of the way." And the Saviour has attached a bitter penalty against those who lay such stumbling-blocks in men's road."