Author Topic: Bad week for El Presidente  (Read 2149 times)

Offline Heinrich

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Bad week for El Presidente
« on: December 20, 2018, 10:54:53 PM »
From Judge Napolitano laying out the legal framework for his likely firing squad consequence, to Kavanaugh doing his best bait and switch, wall withdrawal, DOW having a cow, etc., it appears Trump is taking his worst lumps to date. What are people's analyses? I, for one, am quite upset at the bump stock ban. Challengeable under 5th amendment?
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Offline Jacob

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Re: Bad week for El Presidente
« Reply #1 on: December 20, 2018, 11:05:49 PM »
As far as the Dow, reading the situation depends on who you read.  Those who see the Dow as a serious marker of how the economy is doing are obviously seeing signs of recession or whatever.  Those who've been saying all along Trump is leading a realignment away from Wall Street and back to Main Street are not concerned at all, but rather see the Dow's fluctuations as signs of progress.
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Offline Lambda Phage

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Re: Bad week for El Presidente
« Reply #2 on: December 21, 2018, 08:41:42 AM »
I think the last couple days have been great. He is actually being firm on the wall and he is finally doing what he said he would do about the middle east. Mattis gone is a victory, provided Trump actually does replace him with somebody of similar foreign policy persuasion to Trump, which is obviously what he will look for at this point.

The key is not to listen to the media. That's my one hope with regards to Trump supporters. I read Mattis' letter and I thought it was very professional and respectful to the President. I read Bloomberg's spin on the letter and it was as if they read a completely different letter. Of course they read the same letter, but these people have evil flowing through their veins.

Syria withdrawal is a huge win. Afghanistan withdrawal needs to be all or nothing. A partial withdrawal is risky. It could work but it could also backfire. Both withdrawals, I'm confident, will happen. Though I'm probably the only one currently in country who thinks it will happen.

I don't blame Trump for the stock market. Will it hurt him? Sure, but maybe not too severely. The 2018 election exit polls suggested that people might be finally willing to admit that the economy is not the top issue, and they will vote their ideology no matter what.

The troop withdrawal may be an attempt to improve economic/budget conditons as well. The wall is cheap compared to Afghanistan.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2018, 09:10:27 AM by Lambda Phage »
 
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Offline Michael Wilson

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Re: Bad week for El Presidente
« Reply #3 on: December 21, 2018, 09:04:41 AM »
Re. The Economy; people regard the economy as how it affects them personally; as long as there is full employment, Trump has a good chance to be re-elected. One of the bright spots in this week's news and which the media has partially buried and totally ignored is the news that blue collar job wages have jumped and the economist are giving credit/blame to Trump's more restrictive immigration policies; the blue collar vote is the one that Trump needs to win in states like Michigan and Wisconsin; so this is good news.
And this:
Quote

U.S. Workers Get Biggest Pay Jump Since 2009 as Unemployment Rate Holds at 48-Year Low
American workers enjoyed the biggest leap in pay since 2009 as job gains topped forecasts and the unemployment rate held at a 48-year low, a boost for President Donald Trump ahead of next week’s midterm elections and reason for the Federal Reserve to keep raising interest rates.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 250,000 after a downwardly revised 118,000 gain, a Labor Department report showed Friday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey called for an increase of 200,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings for private workers advanced 3.1 percent from a year earlier and the unemployment rate was unchanged from September at 3.7 percent, both matching projections.

The figures give Republicans another economic accomplishment to tout ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections as they seek to defend control of Congress from what polls indicate will be Democratic gains. The continued hiring and wage increases also reflect a tax-cut boost and reinforce expectations that the central bank will raise interest rates for a fourth time this year in December, though such an outlook may further unsettle investors who just sent U.S. stocks to their worst month since 2011.

“The labor market is cookin’, and that’s the bottom line,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies LLC. “What’s really impressive is that the unemployment rate would’ve declined if the participation rate hadn’t risen, and that’s a good thing. You still have more people coming back to the labor market. There’s a lot to like.”

U.S. stock futures declined after the report, while the dollar trimmed losses and 10-year Treasury yields were higher.

The October data may be less of an indicator of the trend than usual because they reflect distortions from hurricanes both this year and last year. Meanwhile, the U.S. trade war with China poses a risk to further gains and companies may be slowing capital investment.

The Labor Department said 198,000 people weren’t at work due to bad weather, reflecting Hurricane Michael’s impact on Florida, following 299,000 in September amid Hurricane Florence. That compares with 36,000 people not at work due to weather in the year-ago period. Michael had “no discernible effect” on national employment and unemployment estimates for October, the Labor Department said.

What Our Economists Say
The October jobs report provided reassurance that the economy is on sound footing, despite the dramatic seesaw in the pace of hiring gains over the past several months. The breadth of job creation remains solid — an important indication that the escalation of trade tensions is not being whitewashed by short-lived fiscal stimulus stemming from tax cuts. Furthermore, the pace of hiring is robust, especially after accounting for hurricane distortions.– Carl Riccadonna, Yelena Shulyatyeva and Tim Mahedy, Bloomberg EconomicsRead more for the full note here.

Restaurants and bars — an industry where most workers only get paid if they show up to work — saw a 33,500 increase in payrolls, following a 10,000 decrease in September that reflected Florence’s impact.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent from the prior month, also matching analyst projections, following a 0.3 percent gain, the report showed. The annual increase of 3.1 percent followed a 2.8 percent advance.

The year-over-year change reflects possibly storm-boosted figures in October and storm-depressed numbers the prior year, though companies have also been steadily raising pay to attract and retain workers.

Even so, the long-awaited gains follow relatively tepid increases throughout the current expansion, which in mid-2019 will become the longest in U.S. history. The advances are probably still not rapid enough, though, to spur inflation concerns among Fed officials, rather keeping them on a path of gradual interest-rate hikes.

Here are other highlights from the report:

Payrolls
Revisions were a net wash for payrolls in prior two months, as August was revised up 16,000 and September revised down 16,000; three-month average gain of 218,000 Payroll increases were broad-based, including 30,000 in construction, 32,000 in manufacturing and 179,000 in services; retailers added 2,400 following a 32,400 decline Private payrolls rose by 246,000, compared with median estimate of 195,000; government payrolls increased by 4,000

Wages
Average hourly earnings for production and non-supervisory workers increased 3.2 percent from a year earlier, following 2.8 percent in September Average work week increased to 34.5 hours, from 34.4 hours in prior month; a shorter workweek has the effect of boosting average hourly pay

Household Survey
Participation rate increased to 62.9 percent from 62.7 percent the prior month; measure tracks share of working- age people in labor force Employment-population ratio rose to 60.6 percent from 60.4 percent U-6, or underemployment rate, fell to 7.4 percent from 7.5 percent; includes part-time workers wanting full-time job, people who aren’t actively looking

This should be headline news, and it would have been under a Democratic president. But people that are getting paid well and are financially better off under Trump, will have a tendency to vote for him, despite the gloom and doom spin doctors saying otherwise.
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"My brothers, all of you, if you are condemned to see the triumph of evil, never applaud it. Never say to evil: you are good; to decadence: you are progess; to death: you are life. Sanctify yourselves in the times wherein God has placed you; bewail the evils and the disorders which God tolerates; oppose them with the energy of your works and your efforts, your life uncontaminated by error, free from being led astray, in such a way that having lived here below, united with the Spirit of the Lord, you will be admitted to be made but one with Him forever and ever: But he who is joined to the Lord is one in spirit." Cardinal Pie of Potiers
 
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Offline Lambda Phage

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Re: Bad week for El Presidente
« Reply #4 on: December 21, 2018, 09:05:37 AM »
The bump stock ban is frankly stupid. You have an item that was already determined by the ATF not to turn a firearm into a machine gun. Somebody used it to kill people, and now they decide that it does turn a firearm into a machine gun. The disturbing precedence here to me is less with regards to firearms and more to philosophy in general. You can't change the definition of a thing just because of outrage. The man did not use the device in a novel way. Functionally, it did what it was supposed to do. It's  horrible that he killed people with it, but we learned nothing new about the nature of bump stocks and what they are capable of. If it was not a machine gun part before hand, it can't magically be one now simply because somebody committed a particularly appalling crime with it. That has no bearing on what it actually is.

That said, Trump initially did say he was going to ban them, so it's not like he flipped on it.

Kavanaugh is disappointing, but I don't think it's going to be a trend. He's just your standard modern man with a complete lack of moral courage.
 
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Offline Josephine87

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Re: Bad week for El Presidente
« Reply #5 on: December 21, 2018, 02:23:04 PM »
Can people please elucidate on some of these topics? I don't watch the news.
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Offline Graham

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Re: Bad week for El Presidente
« Reply #6 on: December 21, 2018, 02:29:53 PM »
With the new congress coming in about 2 weeks, Trump is in a tight spot. I suspect it won't be long until impeachment proceedings begin. The only question is whether they will wait for the Mueller thing to wrap up and produce a report that can be construed as "damning," thus delaying for several months, or whether they will decide it isn't necessary to wait. It is theatre of course but will distract Trump and waste time and energy and provide cover for Dem obstructionism and cuck moves by never-Trump Republicans like incoming Romney.

In this context Trump is moving away from a strategy of rapprochement with the establishment to one of greater independence and mobility. Kelly and now Mattis are out. I think we will see more EOs (and more court challenges) and more interesting, populist foreign policy moves in 2019. The good news is that when everything seems to be going haywire and nobody is sure what to do, Trump is in his element.
 
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Offline Michael Wilson

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Re: Bad week for El Presidente
« Reply #7 on: December 21, 2018, 04:45:44 PM »
Yes, the Democratic strategy is obvious: Make Trump's image as toxic as possible so that they can run a "centrist" campaign in 2020; smart strategy, it worked partially in the 2018 midterms, so they will double down for the next round. It all depends on the small band of "undecideds" that voted for Trump in the last elections.
"The World Must Conform to Our Lord and not He to it." Rev. Dennis Fahey CSSP

"My brothers, all of you, if you are condemned to see the triumph of evil, never applaud it. Never say to evil: you are good; to decadence: you are progess; to death: you are life. Sanctify yourselves in the times wherein God has placed you; bewail the evils and the disorders which God tolerates; oppose them with the energy of your works and your efforts, your life uncontaminated by error, free from being led astray, in such a way that having lived here below, united with the Spirit of the Lord, you will be admitted to be made but one with Him forever and ever: But he who is joined to the Lord is one in spirit." Cardinal Pie of Potiers
 

Offline Lambda Phage

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Re: Bad week for El Presidente
« Reply #8 on: December 21, 2018, 09:47:55 PM »
https://apnews.com/1c239d63b2634f9caadd4053bae058d8

At least Kavanaugh was right on this one. He ephed up bad on the Planned Parenthood case, but he is not a  Justice Roberts.
 

Offline james03

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Re: Bad week for El Presidente
« Reply #9 on: December 22, 2018, 01:58:11 AM »
Quote
it worked partially in the 2018 midterms,
  No, it was demographics.  The House vote tells everything.  Even in the Senate, if we were as good as a 50/50 split, we should have gotten to 58 Senators.  We only have 53.  And we will probably lose McCain's replacement.

Trumps only hope for 2020 is keeping the union vote.  That gets him the rust belt.  The dems will go further hard left to appease their 3rd world savage constituency.

The wall is meaningless.  As long as you have anchor babies and chain migration, it only gets worse.  I think Trump can hold Florida for 2020, but it will be a squeaker if he does.  After 2020, the US is a third world $h!thole forever.
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Offline Lambda Phage

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Re: Bad week for El Presidente
« Reply #10 on: December 22, 2018, 08:54:32 AM »
I think he'll keep Ohio. Michigan and Wisconsin, not sure.

The Buckeye state looks fairly red these days - possible demographic shift from millenials and city dwellers moving south?
 

Offline james03

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Re: Bad week for El Presidente
« Reply #11 on: December 22, 2018, 11:00:17 AM »
The governor of Wisconsin, who saved and fully funded public pensions was kicked out.  I don't think Trump holds Wisconsin.  My real hope is that the Dems will run another psycho, and Trump will win.

But it's all about demographics.  Reagan caved on amnesty, and California, an old swing State, became a communist third world $h!thole forever.  It looks like we have now lost Arizona, but if not, it will be gone before the 2024 election.  Florida also will eventually fall as elections are getting tighter and tighter.  Look at the recent governor's race.  Eventually we will lose Texas, but that's further out.  Just like it is now a certainty that England will become moslem, it is now a certainty that the US will become a third world $h!thole country with latin americans running through the streets banging on pots and pans bleating for the government to take care of them.

We all like to make fun of "teeth and eyes", the Ocasio Ortez lune.  Keep in mind she was elected due to demographics.  And I am completely serious, she will be our President some day.  She's young now, but she may have a shot in 2024 after Florida has fallen, but definitely she would win in 2028.

The Wall will do some minor good.  However the Christ killers have shifted tactics and are training the savages to claim asylum.  No need to jump the border, just go to a crossing, pregnant, and claim asylum.  Have an anchor baby.  Rinse and repeat.  Then there is chain migration.  If you get your 35 year old grandmother in, she can get citizenship.  After that, she then applies for chain migration for her brothers and sisters.  Brothers and sisters have spouses who have brothers and sisters and grandparents.  They get citizenship, and we get the exponential growth.

Note this is WITH Trump.  Chain migration, asylum, and anchor babies are permanent with out congress.  So it's over for us.  And once the next Dem becomes President, possibly in 2020, but definitely by 2024, they will open the flood gates and it is over at an accelerated pace.   Texas won't last past 2028, but it won't matter.  New York, Florida, California, and Arizona basically guarantee victory when you throw in the Pac NW, Illinois, and the North East.  Assuming you pick up Wisconsin, Ohio, and Michigan, Pennsylvania becomes the swing state.  This assumes we hold North Carolina, since we already lost Virginia.  It is blue.

It's over.  If you are young, learn Russian and leave.  Nows the time to do it.  And then there is the ballooning $22 TRILLION debt.
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Offline Lambda Phage

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Re: Bad week for El Presidente
« Reply #12 on: December 23, 2018, 03:50:17 AM »
Why not German, and move to Austria or Switzerland? Or Polish or Slovak? Or Hungarian?

You at least have the Catholic Church and potentially Latin Masses in those countries. Not in Russia.

Or if you're just looking to escape a collapsing world, why not New Zealand? They speak English and are far removed from everyone else.
« Last Edit: December 23, 2018, 03:52:24 AM by Lambda Phage »
 

Offline james03

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Re: Bad week for El Presidente
« Reply #13 on: December 23, 2018, 02:23:09 PM »
Realistically speaking, I think the best place is Chile.  Very civilized and free.  There's a reason you don't see caravans coming up from Chile.  Pinochet pitched all of the leftists out of helicopters and the country is well run.  They actually have a solvent retirement system and no crisis.  It's still pretty Catholic, which is why they were so pissed when they found out about the pedophile cover ups there.  It's also out of the way for the coming conflict.  The only problem is their strategic importance for copper.

I like the Polish a lot.  They are the best field craftsman in the world.  However unfortunately a Pole puts a Scots to shame when it comes to stubbornness, and they really hate Russians.  So even if the Russians lined up a huge army to invade, the Poles would probably go to the border to moon them and flip them off.

Hungary would probably be the best pick, or the Slovak republic if you are interested in Europe, however I understand that learning Hungarian is difficult.
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Offline Heinrich

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Re: Bad week for El Presidente
« Reply #14 on: December 23, 2018, 03:49:01 PM »
Chile is clearly the front runner for any Catholic wanting to expat. But we have to remember, this is not an Anglo Saxon culture. Meaning: mańana time rules. This can be good or bad, depending how hungry you are. So if you are going to learn Spanish, why not just suck it up and stay where you are? Laus did say there is an Una Voce Russia which provides resources on finding a Latin Mass in Rusher.
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