That leaves us with the missionary religions: Christianity, Islam, and Buddhism. Buddhism can be excluded from Pascal's Wager because the penalty for not taking up Buddhism is simply rebirth, but since we don't remember our past lives (or at least I can't), this is a penalty without a sting, as rebirth is no different from birth. Some schools of Buddhism, such as the Tibetan form, do posit hells, but these can be dismissed as syncretisms where the Buddhist message was overmingled with the local paganism.
Nope. They can't be dismissed as syncretisms. The Kathavatthu, which forms part of the Pali Canon, discusses hells, and the concept of a hell in India dates at least to the period of the Upanishads. One could just as well point to the absence in the original Vedas of the notion of reincarnation; one could also point to the argument, in line with samsara and anatta, that upon death and the dissolution of the human into components, all which is "reincarnated" is the karma, not the atman. Some schools of Buddhism deny the atman, which only makes the phenomenon of "reincarnation" even more irrelevant and the concept of "liberation" something of self-contradiction, but the Buddha only argued that nothing in samsaric existence could be rightly called "I" and that what people in general identify as the self can’t be that, not that there is nothing which transcends samsara.
The Buddha was a Hindu, and his preoccupation was liberation. Samsara alone was enough endless suffering for him.
Hell is just a part of samsara.
You might argue are that there are myriad cult religions to be considered, such as Scientology, Mormonism, Raëlism, &c., but these were all founded recently enough in history that we can see clearly the obvious fabrications by their founders. Weighing them for probability, they come up far short of the major established monotheisms.
Really? You have African traditional religions, Hermeticism, Zoroastrianism, Taoism, and Hinduism itself. And Gnostic Christianities. They all have notions of reward and punishment and a heavenly or afterlife, in one form or another.
Anyway, I won't defend Pascal's Wager. I think it's bullcrap that belongs to the age in which men have lost the ability of immediate experience and entered into an era of blind intellectual speculation. The moment we move from the language of myth and living ritual into that of theology, it's happened. It's the very thing Siddharta encountered in the Brahmanism of his age and against which he formulated his teaching. Heck, you take this from the Vedas and replace "Agni" with "Jesus" and "devas/gods" with "divinity" or "elohim/angels" and it sounds positively Hebrew/Catholic.
1.1.1Mantra 1 – Agni (Author: Madhucchandas Vaisvamitra)
1 I glorify Agni, the divine Priest and the messenger of my oblations to God who is the bestower of prosperity.
2 May Agni, the divine Priest who is glorified by both the past and the present sages, increase and strengthen our bond with the Devas.
3 Praying to God though Agni, the Angel Priest, may we the worshippers obtain valiant offspring, and daily increasing prosperity and glory.
4 Agni, the perfect sacrifice which thou encompassest about
Verily goeth to the Gods.
5 May Agni, sapient-minded Priest, truthful, most gloriously great,The God, come hither with the Gods.
6 Whatever blessing, Agni, thou wilt grant unto thy worshipper,That, Angiras, is indeed thy truth.
7 O Lord, the remover of darkness! We pray to you morning and eveningwith sincere thoughts of reverence. Through our prayers we come close to you.
8 Ruler of sacrifices, guard of Law eternal, radiant One,Increasing in thine own abode.
9 God! Be unto us easy of access, as is a father to his son.Be ever present in our midst, giving us happiness.
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