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The Parish Hall => Job Postings => Topic started by: james03 on October 12, 2014, 08:44:56 PM

Title: Bakken winding down
Post by: james03 on October 12, 2014, 08:44:56 PM
It's looking like the Bakken is due to slow up soon.  Classic Austrian Boom, Fed prints the money and people over invest.  We've flooded the markets with oil and the WTI is dropping.  Last I checked it was around $85.  Good news for the consumer.

Right now things are still cranking, but I expect that to change.  I've started talking to people about my next hitch.

If you have been considering breaking in to the oil industry, my guess is that the next big investment boom will be LNG -- liquified natural gas.  Louisiana supposedly two going on, at Cameron/Sabine Pass, and Lake Charles.  Texas will get one at Freeport.  Maryland of all places has one around Baltimore.  And I think the PAC Northwest is getting one.

The other big areas are fertilizer plants (big one going up in Iowa), and petrochemicals, especially ethylene crackers.  The last is probably the most risky as a softening economy will hurt the demand for plastics.  I really like LNG, because as natural gas prices go lower, they will print money exporting to Europe.  And Europe needs the gas.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: Heinrich on October 12, 2014, 09:03:44 PM
How does it look for Colorado in the fields northeastish of Denver?
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: Jacob on October 12, 2014, 09:26:38 PM
Can you be more specific on where the big plant will be in Iowa?
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: james03 on October 12, 2014, 10:28:04 PM
Quote
How does it look for Colorado in the fields northeastish of Denver?

Same.  Crude breaks $80, and they'll cut back on drilling.  Get towards $70 and they'll lay up rigs.  I suspect they are already trimming capital budgets.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: james03 on October 12, 2014, 10:32:38 PM
Don't know the location, but google gave me this:

http://www.iowafertilizer.com/category/oci-iowa-fertilizer-wever-plant-updates/ (http://www.iowafertilizer.com/category/oci-iowa-fertilizer-wever-plant-updates/)

Seems right.  Burlington, IA. (Wever, Iowa).
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: Heinrich on October 12, 2014, 10:38:57 PM
So are you in direct production type or financial management, James? Do these skills transfer into natural gas extraction?
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: james03 on October 12, 2014, 11:49:28 PM
Currently project engineering, so I'm involved in the design and field execution.  I have backgrounds in other areas, so I can jump over to another sector of the business easily.

That's why I like industrial electrician / instrumentation for young trads starting out.  There's always some sector in the industry making money.  Next year it will be LNG, Fertilizer, and petrochem.  They'll be needing electricians. 
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: Heinrich on October 13, 2014, 02:22:02 PM
I spoke to an electrician who was laid off from ND two weeks ago. He's back home on unemployment: 500 dollars a week compared to a 30/hour wage for however many hours he worked a week. I heard these guys can routinely put in 20 hour days. That's a lotta money.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: james03 on October 13, 2014, 07:35:11 PM
My son graduated from high school and came up here and worked roustabout for two months.  He put in 70-80 hours/week with Sunday off.  Made $11,000 after tax, and will probably get a few thousand on his tax return.

He wants to come back next summer with a trad buddy.  However I think this boom is winding down if crude oil stays low.  The low price is a blessing to most Americans, but it sucks to see this good money dry up.

LNG might be the next one.  And I will get to eat cajun food and never here "youbetcha and dontchaknow" again.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: Jacob on October 13, 2014, 07:52:59 PM
Thanks for the info, James.  There has been talk of a plant of some kind going up outside my hometown in NW Iowa for years.  Cargill is the company.  Not sure what they'd be doing there, so I wondered if that was the plant you mean.  It'd be cool to see that project finally get going.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: james03 on October 13, 2014, 08:52:24 PM
The other big project in Iowa is a new ethanol plant.  Maybe that is the one you are talking about.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: Jacob on October 13, 2014, 09:00:38 PM
The other big project in Iowa is a new ethanol plant.  Maybe that is the one you are talking about.

They opened last year!  Goes to show how well my parents keep me up to date on things back home.

http://www.cargill.com/news/releases/2013/NA3080855.jsp
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: Heinrich on October 13, 2014, 09:25:49 PM
My son graduated from high school and came up here and worked roustabout for two months.  He put in 70-80 hours/week with Sunday off.  Made $11,000 after tax, and will probably get a few thousand on his tax return.

He wants to come back next summer with a trad buddy.  However I think this boom is winding down if crude oil stays low.  The low price is a blessing to most Americans, but it sucks to see this good money dry up.

LNG might be the next one.  And I will get to eat cajun food and never here "youbetcha and dontchaknow" again.

If things are moving: Heck, can I come? I get summers off.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: Kaesekopf on October 14, 2014, 03:11:36 AM
What's wrong with dontchaknow?

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Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: james03 on October 14, 2014, 09:48:01 PM
Quote
If things are moving: Heck, can I come? I get summers off.
If you are serious, remind me in April.  But watch crude oil pricing.  If it breaches $80 and stays below that, chances are the big money will be behind us.  I might be down on the Gulf by then.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: james03 on October 14, 2014, 09:57:40 PM
Quote
What's wrong with dontchaknow?

Yeah, they have that in Wisconsin too.  When I flew up to Wisconsin with Her Royal Hotness, the Scottish female was explaining to me that people talked funny in Wisconsin.  So she starts talking like that with an exaggerated accent.  So I get to the rental car counter, not even thinking about it, and the lady starts by saying, "It's been cooold here, dontchaknow".  My wife is standing there next to me and I couldn't look at her.  I kept a straight face.  Classic scene.

It would be unjust though not to mention they are nice people.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: Heinrich on October 14, 2014, 10:00:10 PM
Quote
If things are moving: Heck, can I come? I get summers off.
If you are serious, remind me in April.  But watch crude oil pricing.  If it breaches $80 and stays below that, chances are the big money will be behind us.  I might be down on the Gulf by then.

Will do.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: Kaesekopf on October 14, 2014, 11:48:31 PM
Quote
What's wrong with dontchaknow?
:lol:

Is HRH your wife?

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Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: james03 on October 15, 2014, 09:46:20 PM
Her Royal Hotness had better be my wife, you got the Scottish part.   They like to grab Claymores when they get ticked.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: maryslittlegarden on October 20, 2014, 03:51:39 PM
And I will get to eat cajun food and never here "youbetcha and dontchaknow" again.

James, I can help you with the You Betcha's if you ever start missing them.  Really. :D
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: james03 on November 06, 2014, 09:16:23 AM
Crude down to $78.  A blessing for America, means I need to start looking at other industries.  Made one call to my buddy and have started the search.  LNG is where it's going to be at.  Freeport, TX to Lake Charles, LA.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: Jacob on November 06, 2014, 10:59:07 AM
I read a little article yesterday in TIME about how LNG is supposed to be the savior of the steel industry in the US because it allows for ultra high temps to be produced so that iron can be super concentrated into pellets that can be added to scrap steel when that steel is melted down and reused.  The pellets allow for a stronger steel on par with fresh, newly made steel.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: james03 on November 06, 2014, 03:38:29 PM
I don't know why LNG would do this.  LNG is liquified methane, brought down to cyrogenic temperatures, say around -200F.  This is done to export the gas to Europe, where it is vaporized and then sent into their natural gas pipelines.

Shale gas will definitely help the industry, as it is cheap.  I'm guessing that using gas in their blast furnaces allows them to make higher quality steel, and do it cheaply.  I have no experience in steel making, and that's my best speculation.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: mikemac on November 29, 2014, 07:57:28 PM
Crude down to $78.  A blessing for America, means I need to start looking at other industries.  Made one call to my buddy and have started the search.  LNG is where it's going to be at.  Freeport, TX to Lake Charles, LA.

Crude is below $70 now.  My brother was telling me that he was reading an article that said that the OPEC nations want to put the fracking industry out of business.  Apparently the fracking industry needs crude to be over $70 for it to be viable.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: Pheo on November 29, 2014, 08:00:21 PM
It's almost funny how imaginary the price of oil is.  I know that it's based in the principles of supply and demand, but OPEC has almost complete control over what they want the market to charge.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: james03 on December 02, 2014, 06:03:32 PM
Quote
Apparently the fracking industry needs crude to be over $70 for it to be viable.

To be precise, it is the shale oil industry.  Fracking has been around for around 70 years and isn't going away.

Oil somewhere around $67.  No word about layoffs yet, but that will be coming.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: Heinrich on December 02, 2014, 07:03:57 PM
Quote
Apparently the fracking industry needs crude to be over $70 for it to be viable.

To be precise, it is the shale oil industry.  Fracking has been around for around 70 years and isn't going away.

Oil somewhere around $67.  No word about layoffs yet, but that will be coming.

James, sorry to hear about the turn of events in the Bakken. If what you are saying is true, then a segment of our society is getting the shaft now(the workers and management), while the rest of us will get it later:

 A colleague and I were talking about why the price is so low. I used your OP to make an explanation and said co worker seemed curious as to the matter. I also mentioned that this whole episode is a one step forward, 5 steps back situation. I am guessing that when the powers that be(prescriptive and causal) are done eroding more of the middle class, i.e. crushing the domestic oil industry oil prices will soar to European price levels. This may be the beginning of the collapse or just another cycle in the globally manipulated "free" market. Could this be described as a deflationary situation?
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: Lynne on December 02, 2014, 07:08:35 PM
My husband (a liberal) says that oil prices have fallen to punish Putin. Any truth to that?
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: Heinrich on December 02, 2014, 07:13:52 PM
My husband (a liberal) says that oil prices have fallen to punish Putin. Any truth to that?

That is what I heard today as well. The effects being that Russian infrastructure, both domestic and militarily, are taking a big hit.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: LausTibiChriste on December 02, 2014, 07:24:23 PM
My husband (a liberal) says that oil prices have fallen to punish Putin. Any truth to that?

That is what I heard today as well. The effects being that Russian infrastructure, both domestic and militarily, are taking a big hit.

Any of you smart geo-political people want to give their insight as to what the end result might be then, if this is true? Will it crush Putin and the Russian "problem" will all but go away, or will it exacerbate things and cause Mr P to act more drastically?
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: Heinrich on December 02, 2014, 07:30:24 PM
My husband (a liberal) says that oil prices have fallen to punish Putin. Any truth to that?

That is what I heard today as well. The effects being that Russian infrastructure, both domestic and militarily, are taking a big hit.

Any of you smart geo-political people want to give their insight as to what the end result might be then, if this is true? Will it crush Putin and the Russian "problem" will all but go away, or will it exacerbate things and cause Mr P to act more drastically?

Chiner might come into play as well. Along with the other BRICs. These things take time, or if identifiable without a doubt, action could be swift and severe. Like a cutting off of European supplies by Russia coupled with and invasion of Ukraine, and Poland. Too many Canadians there for Russian comfort.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: LausTibiChriste on December 02, 2014, 07:36:45 PM
Hahaha, smart arse...I'll take on the Russian invasion single handedly, yenno, Canadian Navy vet and what not. If they do invade hopefully they do it in the next month when I'm home  ;D
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: james03 on December 02, 2014, 08:21:15 PM
It might be part of a strategy to go after Russia.  However we did increase production 4 million barrels per day.  Then they have Iraq ramping up, and Libya has been quietly reentering the market with oil.

The world economy is slowing down dramatically, so you have a glut of oil.  The price has to fall until someone says uncle and the production balances out.

This is a classic case of the Austrian Boom dynamic.  The Fed lowers rate artificially and everyone borrowed and over-drilled.  If rates were 10%, they would be less drilling, and maybe you'd have a price around $85 , but no boom, no bankruptcies and misallocations.

On the plus side, a lot of people have/will benefit from the extra production and lower prices.  They'll stay low until companies start going bankrupt and production comes offline.  Then they'll creep back up.  Probably eventually leveling around the $85 mark.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: Greg on December 03, 2014, 08:47:55 AM
Get into AI, Machine Learning and computers making any kind of machine intelligence decision from large amounts of data.  This is the next boom in the IT field.  100s of billlions will be spent upgrading and updating systems so that they "learn" what is happening and begin to automate various processes and write their own rules of how to handle exceptions, processes, payments, fraud checking, drug testing, legal compliance etc.  In Banking for example 80% of the current IT spend is focused on compliance related work, meeting regulations and being able to show they have met legal obligations.

During the boom salaries will be high in this sector and the early entrants will be perceived as having "experience", which might simply mean that they have been involved for a year or two more.

I can smell a money trough and this is the next one.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: TPC on December 03, 2014, 09:11:20 AM
Get into AI, Machine Learning and computers making any kind of machine intelligence decision from large amounts of data.  This is the next boom in the IT field.  100s of billlions will be spent upgrading and updating systems so that they "learn" what is happening and begin to automate various processes and write their own rules of how to handle exceptions, processes, payments, fraud checking, drug testing, legal compliance etc.  In Banking for example 80% of the current IT spend is focused on compliance related work, meeting regulations and being able to show they have met legal obligations.

During the boom salaries will be high in this sector and the early entrants will be perceived as having "experience", which might simply mean that they have been involved for a year or two more.

I can smell a money trough and this is the next one.

No argument here. Although, I would feel like I was selling my soul to obtain that gain. Would consider myself open to persuasion or taking a change in viewpoint (to my perceived moral hesitation).

By the way Greg, have you heard of James Barrat? Written a book over A.I., Artificial Intelligence and the End of the Human Era: Our Final Invention? Perhaps my pessimism or world view is reflected from that influence. I wouldn't be surprised if my take is different several years from now, if not sooner.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: Greg on December 03, 2014, 10:44:20 AM
Yes, I know about all those worrywarts.  Stephen Hawkin is the latest person to voice his opinion about the machines taking over.

If it is the 'final invention' and some sort of supercomputer takes over and kills or enslaves us (though why it would want us is hard to imagine) then the gospels were wrong and God is not in control.  You don't have a soul to lose.  In which case, why not spend the next few years eating Sirloin steak once a week and living in a nice middle class house in a good part of town and earning enough money to work a 4 day week?  It's inevitable that the machines will take over and become our new masters, or executioners, whether Americans develop them or the Chinese do.  Your involvement ain't going to tip the balance.

The machine will Terminate you whether you are middle class and happily married or poor and single, so you might as well die with a nice steak in your belly having lived a little.

If it isn't the "final invention" and just a new piece of technology, or bump in the road, then why is assisting in supporting it or selling it going to lead to your "selling your soul"?  You are no more to blame for changing the world by earning a decent living in the computer industry, delivering what business want, than some poor person picking i-crap in the Amazon.com wearhouse is for destroying mom&pop businesses on the high street.

If you have a six figure income you can afford a large Catholic family and a stay-at-home wife.  That is worth "selling your soul" for.  At least from Monday to Thursday.  The other 3 days you are free, and comfortably off.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: Kaesekopf on December 03, 2014, 10:48:03 AM
If you aren't working with your hands and getting dirty, you aren't doing holy work.

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Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: clau clau on December 03, 2014, 01:48:21 PM
Recently I saw a headline that Stephen Hawking believed there is no God.

http://www.cnet.com/news/stephen-hawking-makes-it-clear-there-is-no-god/

I remember at the time thinking of the quote from Einstein

“Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind.”

Perhaps all we need now is for Stevie Wonder to embrace Scientology or something.

 :)
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: james03 on December 03, 2014, 05:48:46 PM
Quote
Get into AI, Machine Learning and computers making any kind of machine intelligence decision from large amounts of data.
You want to make a fortune?  Apply voice recognition to some product that retired baby boomers will use.  Voice recognition is just a nice gimmick on a smart phone right now.  Find some real solutions to problems with that and you'll hit a home run.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: james03 on January 07, 2015, 06:59:32 PM
Word came down they are cutting 9 rigs.  So we are going from 17 rigs to 8.  More than 50% cut in activity.  No surprise.  Due to the Uncle Warren charge to run the death trains (Keystone still not approved), Bakken crude is around $35 at the well head.

Today I turned in my resignation.  Most likely my wife will start chemo soon, so I have to be home for her.

Interesting how God timed things in my life.  I was going to lose my job up here anyway, writings on the wall.

Second time I've ever been unemployed.  I really can't work until I find out what's going to happen with my wife.  So I'll actually have a lot of time.  I'd like to do something entrepreneurial, but haven't figured it out yet.  First things first.  If I don't come up with anything, I'll probably go back working "for the man" in an oil refinery.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: Greg on January 08, 2015, 04:01:27 AM
Why not buy specialised oil business machinery and safety equipment and export it to another part of the world?  There must be a healthy margin in that I would think.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: james03 on January 09, 2015, 07:55:43 PM
Sales ain't my thing.  Thanks for throwing ideas out there though.  Working for the man is going to be tough.  Big companies are full of politically correct hand wringing whiners.  That's a good thing when you are contracting, means there is plenty of business.  But there's a good chance I won't be able to travel coming up if worse comes to worst, so I'll need a regular job.

I'll tell you one true story on sales.  We had this friend who was the best salesman ever, simply because he sold "solving your problem" and didn't b.s. the customer.  The dude has been a millionaire 3 or 4 times.  Only problem is when he makes a million, he gets bored and starts snorting coke.

So my buddy finds Bill all whacked on coke, and actually let's him live with him and cleans him up.  So he's doing good for 2 years and somehow has started a environmental company making serious money.

So I'm talking to our business contact in Venezuela, and it turns out that they are all about oil spill response for some reason, so my contact asks if we can run the oil spill response program.  I say yes and send Bill down there.  We get a meeting set up with the head of PdVsa and Rafiel Ramirez the Oil Minister.

Unfortunately Bill has a stop over in San Juan, where he has some old buddies.  So the day of the meeting approaches and we can't find Bill.  So we stand up the head of PdVsa and the oil minister.  Turns out Bill got with his old buddies and went on a huge coke binge for about a week.

And that's how I lost out on a $50 million contract.  True story.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: Greg on January 09, 2015, 08:30:47 PM
Yep, happens to lots of salespeople.  Usually booze.

I'm not a substance abuser though.  Steak, youTube and Karaoke keep me happy.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: james03 on January 11, 2015, 10:07:48 PM
I was in need of a laugh:

(http://blogs.e-rockford.com/applesauce/files/2013/11/popetwitter_1.jpg)
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: Landless Laborer on January 20, 2015, 10:36:45 AM
James, you're probably the kind of guy who has savings.  Why not stop for a while?  That might seem like a preposterous thought, in fact it may be an opportunity for you to store more important treasure and concentrate on your imperfections.  At least for a time.  Your wife is sick, there's your first order of daily business.   Daily Mass, Rosaries, prayers, works of mercy, cooking, gardening, cleaning, you will wonder how you ever held down a job.   
If we're still here in 2018, go back to work.   
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: james03 on January 21, 2015, 08:29:02 PM
There was never a question about me resigning, which I have.  At some point I'll have to go back to work.  Probably take a refinery job.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: Heinrich on April 05, 2015, 03:15:17 PM
So I talked with a lady whom I worked with at my pt job. Her husband and two sons are still working up in the Bakken, although her husband lost his initial job(along with 4000 other guys, she says). He got a call 4 days later and left. Both boys are still working in production, but I didn't ask what the hours were.
Title: Re: Bakken winding down
Post by: james03 on April 05, 2015, 07:24:35 PM
Production jobs are secure.  This is where the well is drilled and producing.  Makes no sense to shut it down, since the money is already spent. 

My crew is still active, but I heard June is the n*t cutting time.  I need to check in with them soon.