WW3 Has Begun - Iran launches drones at Israel

[AlfredtheGreat]

I'll go with 50% chance for war to break out.

Now there's a bold prediction.

[Michael Wilson]

Edited original comment. It is getting really realer now: the Bolivians chose their side:

https://x.com/coooperactiva/status/1779290404606615580?s=61&t=Bec3Agl4ECYRqLuuzd3JHw

This is hilarius! The twitter post said that "The Bolivian government is backing Iran 100% in this conflic; has declared war on Israel and therefore it is putting at Iran's disposal its entire navy!. (Bolivia is a landlocked country with no navy).

[Heinrich]

Western media report Iran missiles intercepted or were ineffective. This means, of course, that Israel has been punched in the throat.

[awkward customer]

Western media report Iran missiles intercepted or were ineffective. This means, of course, that Israel has been punched in the throat.

Here's what Scott Ritter has to say - details start at 3.55.

In summary - it was a limited attack designed precisely to show that Israel's Iron Dome is ineffective.  Iran employed the 'drone swarm' technique used by the Russians (with Iranian drones) and the Houthis (with Iranian drones).  Each drone in the swarm costs $2,000 while the missiles used to shoot them down cost $2million each.

Israel's Iron Dome needed plenty of outside help to shoot down the drone swarms which the Iranians had already given warning of.  And even then, they still hit the air base they were aiming for.

That's the theory anyway.  It depends on whether or not any Westerner can bring themselves to believe that the Iranians have taken drone technology to a new level and that NATO doesn't have the capacity to resist effectively.

[LausTibiChriste]

I don't think Iran even scratched the surface of what they are capable of.

I read some numbers that Israel spent close to $1 billion on the Iron Dome that night. That's a crazy number.

[awkward customer]

$1 billion plus help from the US and UK, and still the Israeli airbase was hit.  And the Iranians warned about the attack hours before.  So much for the Iron Dome.

I've heard it said that the Russians have taken out the Ukrainian air defences by a similar drone swarm method.  They send a load of drones to attack an installation on the energy grid, for example.  The Ukrainians respond by launching expensive missiles to take down the cheap drones.  This reveals the position of the Ukrainian air defences which the Russians, using their extensive satellite monitoring systems, locate and destroy.  Then the Russians attack another installation and another.  Eventually the Ukrainians have no more air defences and no more missiles.

And then there's the Houthis, who have closed the Red Sea to Israeli shipping with swarms of $2,000 drones - Iranian drones.

Drone warfare is the future, or rather the present, and NATO hasn't caught up.   

[LausTibiChriste]

It really is a brilliant system...cheap and you can produce them en masse.

Sometimes the simplest solution really is best

[awkward customer]

Here's Alastair Cooke going into more detail about the attack with Judge Napolitano.

[awkward customer]

This is a good one with Larry Johnson explaining the details.

[james03]

My summary:

1.  Very restrained response by Iran.  They targeted 2 airbases in the Negev desert, which means very little possibility of civilian collateral damage.

2.  Likely the UK and US (F-18s from carriers) assisted with drones and sub-sonic cruise missiles.  The fighters are something like 5 times faster than a drone, so shooting them down is not hard especially given the great radar on US fighters.  Each US missile used was likely around $500K on the low side.

3.  There is weird video of the various drones and missiles burning up.  It's possible that these were ballistic missiles coming in fast, however they looked slow.  It's also possible that lasers were used on drones.  The drones start glowing brighter and brighter, then explode.  These weren't "intercepted".

4.  Ballistic missiles did get through and hit the airbases.  We will never know the damage, though perhaps we'll get some civilian satellite images.  Even then, the Former West will put pressure on the firms to censure such photos.

If this goes real, imagine Iran targeting Israeli power plants and petroleum tanks, along with missiles coming in from Hezbollah.

I'm still 50/50 on war.  Biden is likely screaming at the Israelis to stand down, because the biggest threat against Genocide Joe!! is the Dem civil war.  Israelis are hyper paranoid, so they might say F- it, and launch.

If I have to make a call, I'll say Israel will bomb the crap out of Lebanon and Syria.

[Miriam_M]

I just want to comment that if Israel is supposedly so impotent and Iran so much more militarily superior to Israel, we would not see today the coast-to-coast pro-Palestinian, "death to Israel" demonstrations that have shut down bridges, access to airports, and the like.  People who feel confident that their favorite terror group or country will defeat Israel, or U.S.-Israel alliance, would not have engaged in this clearly coordinated action.

There must be at least the perception that Iran is weaker than the U.S and Israel combined -- whether that's an accurate perception or not.

[james03]

More reports on damage in Israel:

IRGC has listed its objectives for last nights missile attack: Ramon and Nevatim airbases (where attack on Iran Consulate was conducted from). Israeli Air Force intelligence HQ in Tel Aviv (where attack on Iran Consulate was planned) and degrading of Israeli air defence radars and assets.

The footage is of the Intelligence HQ getting hit. I have yet to see evidence of 99% interception. Ramon has been badly hit. Nevatim was hit by more than 7 missiles. Air Force Intelligence HQ completely leveled.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/iran-breaches-anglo-zionist-defenses

[james03]

People who feel confident that their favorite terror group or country will defeat Israel, or U.S.-Israel alliance, would not have engaged in this clearly coordinated action.

The Shia, including Iran, appear to be the far more civilized tribe of the savages.  Even Hezbollah tends to limit attacks on the military.  The IEDs used by the Shia in Iraq were exclusively used against the US military.  We saw it again yesterday as Iran targeted the Israeli military.  So calling Iran a "terror group or country" is incorrect.  Compare them to the Sunni tribe, which is known for its headhunting and bombing civilian targets.  9-11 was done by the Sunni tribe.  Hamas is Sunni, and mainly supported by Qatar, Saudi, and Turkey.

However if Israel attacks Iran again, I think Iran will escalate and hit the port of Haifa, and possibly power plants.

In a war between Iran and Israel, Iran with aid from Hezbollah wins easily.  And if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, the US stock market loses 50% in a few days and gasoline easily tops $5/gallon, if not $10.

[james03]

The simplicius link has some good embedded video.  The videos capture somewhere around 20 hits on Israel from ballistic missiles.  Basically a tiny country like Israel is wide open to total destruction.  Hit their fuel import terminal, the port, and their power plants, and it's over.

[Heinrich]

James, 9-11 was Israeli op.