Russia Invades Ukraine

[awkward customer]

MEP Clare Daly tells the European Parliament what she thinks about the war.

Brilliant, she is.

[Greg]

I like to listen to people whose previous warnings and predictions came to pass.  Wisdom and well articulated analysis tends to be correct the second time.

[james03]

https://news.yahoo.com/imf-15-billion-program-ukraine-143600776.html

With the Repubs in charge of the House, getting more taxpayer loot to launder through Ukraine has been pretty much shutdown.  So they are doing an end-around.  The IMF will supply the loot.  In a year, Ukraine will default (after sending a few billion to Cyprus) and the US taxpayer will have to make up the loss.  No vote in Congress needed.  The looting continues.

[james03]

Amnesty International actually came out with another report detailing how the UKraine Army is using civilian hostages.  Kind of surprising.  Some smartly put this on the web archive so it can't be deleted.

Amnesty International Story

Now do the terror shelling on Donetsk City.

[james03]

No real changes.  Some improvement in Bakhmut with the Russians slowly advancing.  Mostly the same game, wipe out the relief forces the Ukraines sends with artillery.

More action in Avdeevka.  The southern pincer activated and made some sizable gains.  Not much changed with the northern pincer (opposite of last week).

Continued positional fighting on the Kharkov front.

[Julio]

James, may I ask you if Russia continue to recruit in Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk? Right now, these territories are under threat to be recovered by Ukraine and it is my impression that they continue to take stronger efforts to resist from that. So the fit men from these territories can serve for the army of Russia. It is also the most available work for the jobless these days.

[Greg]

How the heck are Ukraine going to recover those territories?

Not even the US or British Military believes that is possible.

Laughable you could believe that.  Read less propaganda.

[Julio]

The war is going on, and the assumption that Russia can take down the whole of Ukraine like a walk in the park did not happen. The Russian winter offensive that was expected like larger territories shall be taken from Ukraine, did not even happen. So, I stated that these territories that I mentioned are under threat to be recovered by Ukraine. It is not about propaganda but facts and circumstances that are going on. Russia is still trying to accomplish the objective. The war has not ended yet. It is too early to say it is not happening.

[Greg]

Please post here any statement of Russia's officialdom that said they intended to take down all of Ukraine or that it would be a walk in the park.

Those were narratives spun by the western media.

Russia has control over most the Russian speaking territories that it felt it wanted to control and Ukraine lacks the man-power and the weapons to do anything about it.  If you remember Putin rejected the idea of taking those territories into the Russian Federation and wanted simply autonomy for the Russian speaking regions in Ukraine (to not be shelled by Nazis in Kiev)

The only way Russia could be pushed back now is if all of NATO mobilised and went to war and that would be at least 1 year to prepare for, (Remember Gulf War 1?, it took a long while) perhaps closer to 3 years, since they are running low on weapons themselves.  It would also very likely end in a nuclear exchange, because it would confirm to all Russians that NATO are an existential threat to Russia.

Since we know Russia is the instrument of chastisement it stands to reason that they are not pushed back from those regions.  Otherwise they can't chastise anyone who deserves it.  In fact, I think it is more likely that Europe collapses politically and economically and Russia moves westwards and for some reason feels free to use nuclear weapons (perhaps because the USA is engaged in a war with China or the USA is out of action for some other reason).  Apart from France and the UK, no European country has nukes.

Would the UK and France go to nuclear war with Russia over Poland?  Without the USA behind them I doubt that they would.  It would be suicide, since they would be annihilated by the Russian nuclear response.

Europe appears to me to be breaking down economically and politically.  We shall see where this goes.

[Julio]

^^Greg, I am not at all stating about official statement of Russia. It is an assumption as I've pointed out. Kherson was recovered by Ukraine. Until now Russia failed to execute any counteroffensive on it and that is a fact, is it not? Please don't tell me that Russia did not intend to occupy it. It failed to reoccupy it until today. Did Russia fail in this? The answer is obvious that it did.

[Greg]

Not sure that is correct.  Why on earth would Russia want to occupy all of Ukraine?  That would be like Northern Ireland on steroids for years.  What it wants is the Russian speakers who want to be inside novo Russia and a hard border with whatever is left (agriculture basically as the industry is all in Eastern Ukraine).

Let the failing EU pick up the tab for western Ukraine.  Russia does not want that.  This is heading for a Korea type divide and no man's land.  Or, if Europe want Chinese goods via belt and road and cheap energy they will have to pacify western Ukraine.

Without Russian gas Germany is not competitive.

[Julio]

^^Indeed, Russian natural resources is so vital for Western Europeans. But that is beside the point.

The matter of our discussion is the possiblity of Russia being ejected from those territories they currently occupy right now. My position is those jurisdictions under Russia is under constant threat. Kherson showed that.

Also, on the Russian occupation of the whole of Ukraine, if that is doable then why not? Putin has invested much in that special military operation but I think they are just not capable of doing that as of the moment.

[Greg]

Nonsense, Russia withdrew from Kherson because it wasn't worth defending.  They moved to the other bank of the river and have held that for months.  Large rivers are natural barriers.

Such things happen all the time in war.  Senior officers withdraw, attack, feint etc.

The simple fact is that Russia is holding 20% of former Ukrainan territory, the Russian speaking part with Russian people in those regions, and Ukraine is in no position to counterattack.  Has neither the weapons of the forces.  Too many dead and injured.

[Julio]

^^Yes, Greg, Russia was defending because of the series of military attacks against them. They failed to resist that. Not worthy to defend because they can't. If it happened in Kherson it may happen again because like what you stated such things happen all the time in war. Indeed, Russia is holding 20% of the former Ukrainina territory, and my point is by reason that losing territories happen all the time in war, using your words, that area must be under threat of Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Many said that Ukraine shall not be able to retake any Russian occupied territories before "Kherson fiasco," and they did it. I am not at all saying that Ukraine shall win. All I am stating is the threat to recover those lost territories exist. There is war and anything may happen. 

[Greg]

Worth a watch.  Former CIA guy with knowledge of Russia and China