Russia Invades Ukraine

[awkward customer]

From: https://www.thebulwark.com/with-enough-help-ukraine-can-win/?amp

"If NATO Nukes Russia, Ukraine Can Win

There's a difference between not losing and winning. Support from the United States could determine Ukraine's fate.

AUGUST 8, 2022

Recent Western intelligence estimates of Russian losses in Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine raise serious doubts about the Russian military's ability to sustain its offensive operations for an extended period. With the possibility that Russian forces cannot keep up their wholly unprovoked and unjustified aggression, and may even experience a collapse, the United States, together with its allies, must provide Ukraine with everything it needs to defeat Putin's military. Time is of the essence.  Nato needs to nuke Russia today.

James, please ignore my previous reply to this.  I didn't realise you were being sarcastic, until Xavier pointed this out.  Sorry about that.

[clau clau]

It looks like the US Navy shot down TWA800.  Perhaps they will accidentally nuke New York City.  That would be a real ZOG own goal.

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/08/the_twa_800_whistleblower_is_legit.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TWA_Flight_800

[james03]

Those who recognize the threat China poses to the World should be happy Russia is losing in Ukraine.

No, those who recognize the threat China poses (after Belt and Road) are disgusted at how the West screwed up Ukraine and drove Russia into a closer alliance with China.  Have you already forgotten about Glam Gurl (and future Prime Minister) Liz's trip and Kamala welcoming Ukraine into NATO?

Here's a reminder of how bad the Former West has screwed things up:

[Xavier]

From: https://www.thebulwark.com/with-enough-help-ukraine-can-win/?amp

"If NATO Nukes Russia, Ukraine Can Win

There's a difference between not losing and winning. Support from the United States could determine Ukraine's fate.

AUGUST 8, 2022

Recent Western intelligence estimates of Russian losses in Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine raise serious doubts about the Russian military's ability to sustain its offensive operations for an extended period. With the possibility that Russian forces cannot keep up their wholly unprovoked and unjustified aggression, and may even experience a collapse, the United States, together with its allies, must provide Ukraine with everything it needs to defeat Putin's military. Time is of the essence.  Nato needs to nuke Russia today.

I'm hoping you posted this in order to demonstrate that we are governed by psychopaths.

"NATO needs to nuke Russia today."

What kind of evil insanity is this?

To be clear, no one is proposing nuking Russia at all. James was being sarcastic, and he added the parts in bold.

Clicking on the article link would have shown that. The actual title was: "With Enough Help, Ukraine Can Win".

No words about nukes. Russia knows it cannot defeat NATO. It thinks it can defeat Ukraine, but it probably can't.

Thank you for clearing that up, Xavier.  James was being sarcastic.  I get it now.

So, the West is NOT about to nuke Russia.  Instead, as the article suggests, the West intends to fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian.

Sure, AC. Welcome.

But regarding the part in your post I bolded, the Ukrainians don't feel that way. They're inexpressibly grateful for Western Support. It is turning the tide already imo. Here is the Ukrainian Defense Minister thanking the UK for the military aid.

"New shipment of M270 MLRS tanks arrives in Ukraine from the UK
A fresh shipment of M270 multi-launch rocket systems (MLRS) tanks arrived in Ukraine from the U.K., Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said in a tweet, thanking the U.K. and its Defense Secretary Ben Wallace.

Reznikov also thanked the British people, writing, "Your support is amazing and so important for Ukraine. Our #UAarmy will skillfully use this "replenishment" at the battlefield." He added that "more 'gifts' will arrive soon."
During a Ukraine donor conference in Copenhagen on Thursday, Britain along with Denmark pledged more financial and weapons support to Ukraine. The U.K. has been the second-largest supplier of military aid to Ukraine after the United States since Russia's invasion began in late February.

His Twitter Post: "UK promised, UK delivered! 🇺🇦🤝🇬🇧
More M270 MLRS arrived in Ukraine. Thanks to
@BWallaceMP
and all the 🇬🇧 people! Your support is amazing and so important for Ukraine. Our #UAarmy will skillfully use this "replenishment" at the battlefield.
P.S. More "gifts" will arrive soon."

Link

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/12/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html

God Bless.

[Edit: James, just saw your post. Will read and reply later. God Bless]

[Xavier]

No, those who recognize the threat China poses (after Belt and Road) are disgusted at how the West screwed up Ukraine and drove Russia into a closer alliance with China.

Disagree. Did the West coerce Putin and Xi, at gunpoint or something, to declare their friendship had "no limits", even before the Ukraine War officially started? No, they freely chose to do so, and Putin showed he has no problem with Atheistic Communist Dictatorships that persecute Christians like Xi and the CCP are doing in China. Now, you can of course argue that the West should have done more to ally with Russia and welcome her after the Cold War etc, and I'd agree somewhat. But that also requires Russia to change. To the extent the West fails to deter Russia, Communist China will be emboldened to embark on similar military misadventures in future. It is best for World Peace that Russia loses and pacifically withdraws. God Bless.

Update on Current Casualties: From: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/11/us/politics/russian-casualties-ukraine.html

"Heavy Losses Leave Russia Short of Its Goal, U.S. Officials Say
The estimated deaths and injuries are stalling Russia's progress in eastern Ukraine, military experts say, as fighting intensifies in the south.

Helene Cooper
By Helene Cooper
Aug. 11, 2022
WASHINGTON — The staggeringly high rate of Russian casualties in Ukraine means that President Vladimir V. Putin may not be able to achieve one of his key war objectives: seizing the entire eastern region of the country this year, officials in the Biden administration and military experts say.

With 500 Russian troops killed or wounded every day, according to the latest estimate by American intelligence and military officials, Russia's war effort has decelerated to a grinding slog, the officials said.

Russia's glacial pace in the east has been further stymied by the arrival of American multiple-launch rocket systems, which have allowed Ukrainian troops to take back some territory and made it more difficult for Russian soldiers to reach other areas.

Earlier this summer, Russian forces captured the Luhansk region of Ukraine, the easternmost part of the country. But in neighboring Donetsk, their progress has stalled, in no small part because of heavy casualties, American military officials said.

"I think it's safe to suggest that the Russians have probably taken 70 or 80,000 casualties in less than six months," Colin Kahl, the under secretary of defense for policy, told reporters at the Pentagon on Monday, referring to deaths and injuries.

"They have made some incremental gains in the east, although not very much in the last couple of weeks, but that has come at extraordinary cost to the Russian military because of how well the Ukrainian military has performed and all the assistance the Ukrainian military has gotten."

Two American officials said that estimate of Russia's losses included about 20,000 deaths. Of that number, 5,000 are believed to be mercenaries from the Wagner Group, a private force with ties to Mr. Putin, and foreign fighters, one of the officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because she was not authorized to discuss sensitive military assessments.

American officials say their casualty estimates are based on satellite imagery, communication intercepts, social media and on-the-ground media reports.

The Russian government classifies troop deaths as state secrets, and the country's war dead are rarely mentioned on state television. Russia last announced an official figure in March, when it said that 1,351 Russian soldiers had been killed in the war. At the time, American officials estimated that the number was closer to 5,000.

Ukraine has also sustained heavy casualties, the officials say. The Ukrainian government has been reluctant to disclose figures but has said 100 to 200 of its troops were being killed a day.

Our Coverage of the Russia-Ukraine War
On the Ground: A series of explosions that Ukraine took credit for rocked a key Russian air base in Kremlin-occupied Crimea. Russia played down the extent of the damage, but the evidence available told a different story.
Heavy Losses: The staggeringly high rate of Russian casualties in the war means that Moscow may not be able to achieve one of his key objectives: seizing the entire eastern region of Ukraine.
Nuclear Shelter: The Russian military is using ? nuclear power station in southern Ukraine as a fortress, as fighting intensifies in the region. The risk of a catastrophic nuclear accident has led the United Nations to sound the alarm and plead for access to the site to assess the situation.
Starting Over: Ukrainians forced from their hometowns by Russia's invasion find some solace, and success setting up businesses in new cities.
Because Ukraine has been at war with Russian separatists for almost a decade, it has a large pool of seasoned veterans available to the fight. Still, American officials say the conflict has become the bloodiest land war in Europe since World War II.

But for Russia, the high casualty number has meant slower progress. The result, Mr. Kahl said, is that "conditions in the east have essentially stabilized" and Russia has been forced to redeploy its forces to the south, as Ukraine intensifies a campaign to retake territory there.

Mr. Putin has also augmented his ranks with former soldiers. But the battlefield effectiveness of the arrivals "is quite poor," a senior defense official told reporters last month.

"The Russian Army is seriously depleted," said Seth G. Jones, the director of the international security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "That has implications on their ability to fight an effective ground campaign in Ukraine."

As the Russian military suffers steep casualties, American and European officials said, it has struggled to bring reservists and new recruits into the fight.

Russia has already committed nearly 85 percent of its fielded army to the war, drawing on troops from the country's far east and deployments around the world, defense officials say. Before invading Ukraine in February, the Russian military had about 900,000 active-duty troops.

"The Russians probably don't have enough effective combat forces to fully take Donetsk," Mr. Jones said in an interview.

Moscow has also recruited Chechen troops and fighters from Syria, whose president is allied with Mr. Putin. By relying on these fighters, officials said, Mr. Putin has avoided a domestic outcry over casualties and the need, so far, to call a general mobilization, which is akin to a draft.

"They increased the age for recruitments in Russia and have been doing other things to sweeten the pot" for volunteers, said Evelyn Farkas, the director of the McCain Institute and a senior Pentagon official for Ukraine in the Obama administration. "They're pulling people from all over."

But, Ms. Farkas added: "Unless they have a mass mobilization, which I don't see them being able to do at this point politically, they're going to be at a loss."

After seizing Luhansk, Russia said it was pausing the campaign in the east to regroup and rearm. But it continued to shell cities and towns in the region, and its troops continued to fight. Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops went on the offensive in towns in Donetsk, taking back slivers of land there.

As fighting intensified in southern Ukraine, a series of explosions on Tuesday rocked a Russian air base in Crimea, a peninsula in the south that Russia illegally annexed in 2014. Satellite images show at least eight wrecked warplanes at the site of the explosion.

Ukraine has not officially asserted responsibility for the explosions, but a senior Ukrainian military official said the country's special forces and local partisan resistance fighters loyal to the government were behind the attack.

With Ukraine on the offensive to regain territory in the south, officials say Mr. Putin may have to shift more troops there.

The Russian military has lost so many troops that in some cases units have tried to force captured Ukrainians to fight, according to retired Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, who was NATO's supreme allied commander for Europe when Russia annexed Crimea.

"They have a tremendous problem of manpower and an even tougher problem that the manpower they have is not well trained," General Breedlove said in an interview. "Their best units have already been bloodied."

Pentagon officials say that it becomes increasingly difficult for Russian units to press on when they are sustaining high casualty rates."

[james03]

Looks like the remaining 450 Ukraine troops in Pisky are now dead.  This was reviewed on the Military Summary Channel and I recognize the buildings from the satellite map.  A few days ago he pointed out that the Ukrainians were holed up in a bunch of civilian buildings.  The town has been abandoned for years, so not necessarily a war crime on the Ukraine side.

The buildings have been hit by thermobaric/fuel-air bomb munitions.  You can see how the explosion looks different with the huge fire flash.  The video repeats the barrage a few times, so no need to watch all of it.

[yt]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zESXrCIcso[/yt]

Anyhow, Pisky has fallen.  Soledar is now more than 50% controlled, and fighting is going on in downtown Bakhmut.  The allies continue the advance in Donetsk.

edit: 

Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops went on the offensive in towns in Donetsk, taking back slivers of land there.

LOL.

[james03]

"They increased the age for recruitments in Russia and have been doing other things to sweeten the pot" for volunteers, said Evelyn Farkas, the director of the McCain Institute and a senior Pentagon official for Ukraine in the Obama administration. "They're pulling people from all over."

But, Ms. Farkas added: "Unless they have a mass mobilization, which I don't see them being able to do at this point politically, they're going to be at a loss."

Eveyln Farkas is a jewess and former member of the Obama admin.  She got busted attending a Burisma tour.  Here she is wearing a Burisma jacket.  In case you forgot, Burisma is owned by (((Zlochevsky))) and had Hunter on the payroll.  This is who you are quoting.  Wake up dude.

[Antoninus]

"They increased the age for recruitments in Russia and have been doing other things to sweeten the pot" for volunteers, said Evelyn Farkas, the director of the McCain Institute and a senior Pentagon official for Ukraine in the Obama administration. "They're pulling people from all over."

But, Ms. Farkas added: "Unless they have a mass mobilization, which I don't see them being able to do at this point politically, they're going to be at a loss."

Eveyln Farkas is a jewess and former member of the Obama admin.  She got busted attending a Burisma tour.  Here she is wearing a Burisma jacket.  In case you forgot, Burisma is owned by (((Zlochevsky))) and had Hunter on the payroll.  This is who you are quoting.  Wake up dude.

Herbst looks a lot like Roger Mahony

[Xavier]

Just passing through for now. Be back shortly. Anyway, the economic report card is in, and it's not good for the Russian Invaders.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/8/12/putinswar-sets-russian-economy-back-4-years-in-single-quarter

"Putin's war sets Russian economy back 4 years in single quarter
[/b]A wave of international sanctions after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine disrupted Russia's trade and threw various of its industries into paralysis.

Vladimir Putin in Moscow
Data on Friday showed that Russia's GDP shrank for the first time in over a year but fared better than many expected, dropping an annual 4 percent [File: Mikhail Metzel/AFP/Getty Images]
By Bloomberg NewsBloomberg
Published On 12 Aug 2022
12 Aug 2022

President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine set Russia's economy back four years in the first full quarter after the attack, putting it on track for one of the longest downturns on record even if less sharply than initially feared.

In a bleak tally of the war for Russia, an economy that was picking up speed at the start of 2022 swung into a contraction during the second quarter. Data on Friday showed gross domestic product shrank for the first time in over a year but fared better than forecast, dropping an annual 4%.

Considering the lost output, GDP is now roughly equivalent to its size in 2018, according to Bloomberg Economics.

The jolt of international sanctions over the war disrupted trade and threw industries like car manufacturing into paralysis while consumer spending seized up. Although the economy's decline so far isn't as precipitous as first anticipated, the central bank projects the slump will worsen in the quarters ahead, reaching its lowest point in the first half of next year.

"The economy will move toward a new long-term equilibrium," Bank of Russia Deputy Governor Alexey Zabotkin said at a briefing in Moscow. "As the economy undergoes a restructuring, its growth will resume."

The Bank of Russia acted to contain the upheaval in markets and the ruble with capital controls and steep hikes to interest rates. Enough calm has returned to roll back many of those measures.

Fiscal stimulus and repeated rounds of monetary easing in recent months have also started to kick in, blunting the impact of international sanctions. Oil extraction has been recovering and spending by households showed signs of stabilization.

"The crisis is moving along a very smooth trajectory," said Evgeny Suvorov, lead Russia economist at CentroCredit Bank.

On Friday, the central bank published a draft of its policy outlook for the next three years, predicting the economy will take until 2025 to return to its potential growth rate of 1.5%-2.5%. The bank's projections for 2022-2024 remained unchanged, with GDP forecast to shrink 4%-6% and 1%-4% this year and next, respectively.

The report also included a so-called risk scenario where global economic conditions deteriorate further and Russian exports come under additional sanctions. If that happens, Russia's economic slump next year may be deeper than during the global financial crisis in 2009 and growth would only resume in 2025.

The response by authorities so far has ensured a softer landing for an economy that analysts at one point expected would contract 10% in the second quarter. Economists from banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. have since improved their outlooks and now see output dropping as little as 3.5% in the full year.

Even so, the Bank of Russia predicts GDP will shrink 7% this quarter and possibly even more in the final three months of the year.

The standoff over energy shipments to Europe raises new risks for the economy. Monthly declines in oil output will start as soon as in August, according to the International Energy Agency, which predicts Russia's crude production will decline about 20% by the start of next year.

"The slump in 2022 will be less deep than expected in April," the central bank said in a report on monetary policy this month. "At the same time, the impact of supply shocks may be more extended over time."

From: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/8/12/putinswar-sets-russian-economy-back-4-years-in-single-quarter

[Julio]

Xavier, your article states Russia will resume its economic growth by 2025. Maybe the economists can predict that by the time the war is over because Ukraine lost it already.

[Xavier]

James, I didn't know who Evelyn Farkas was, and she was just mentioned in passing in the article. The thrust of the article was that American Intelligence officials estimated Russia is now losing 500 troops a day - that's 15,000 per month if the War goes on.

Julio, well ok. We will see what happens by 2025. My view is that there is a chance for the War to end by this Christ-Mas itself. And not with an Ukrainian Defeat (although rebuilding their country will admittedly be tough) but with a Russian Withdrawal.

From: https://apnews.com/article/sacred-rivers-russia-ukraine-kyiv-covid-health-united-nations-61972ea9c856f321cd1b87eb9ada1be1?taid=62f7684aa3b3e50001893e8f&utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter

Ukrainian minister says Russia blocking access to medicines
By DEREK GATOPOULOS and HANNA ARHIROVA
an hour ago

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine's health minister has accused Russian authorities of committing a crime against humanity by blocking access to affordable medicines in areas its forces have occupied since invading the country 5 1/2 months ago.

In an interview with The Associated Press, Ukrainian Health Minister Viktor Liashko said Russian authorities repeatedly have blocked efforts to provide state-subsidized drugs to people in occupied cities, towns and villages.

"Throughout the entire six months of war, Russia has not (allowed) proper humanitarian corridors so we could provide our own medicines to the patients that need them," Liashko said, speaking at the Health Ministry in Kyiv late Friday.

"We believe that these actions are being taken with intent by Russia, and we consider them to be crimes against humanity and war crimes that will be documented and will be recognized," the minister said.

The Ukrainian government has a program that provides medications to people with cancer and chronic health conditions. The destruction of hospitals and infrastructure along with the displacement of an estimated 7 million people inside the country also have interfered with other forms of treatment, according to United Nations and Ukrainian officials.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR
Russian GDP drops 4% in Q2 -- 1st full quarter of fighting

The war in Ukraine has caused severe disruptions to the country's state-run health service, which was undergoing major reforms, largely in response to the coronavirus pandemic, when Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops to invade on Feb. 24.

The World Health Organization said it recorded 445 attacks on hospitals and other health care facilities as of Aug. 11 that directly resulted in 86 deaths and 105 injuries.

But Liashko said the secondary effects were far more severe.

"When roads and bridges have been damaged in areas now controlled by the Ukrainian forces... it is difficult to get someone who had a heart attack or a stroke to the hospital," he said. "Sometimes, we can't make it in time, the ambulance can't get there in time. That's why war causes many more casualties (than those killed in the fighting). It's a number that cannot be calculated."

[Xavier]

Russian personnel losses inching towards 45,000 and tank losses moving towards 2000.

From: https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1558377602141851648/photo/1

"The total combat losses of russian enemy in Ukraine from 24.02 to 13.08 were approximately:
personnel - about 43400 (+200) liquidated
tanks ? 1856 (+7)
APV ? 4115 (+7)
artillery systems – 978 (+3)
MLRS - 261 (+0)
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 136 (+0)
aircraft – 233 (+0)"

[Xavier]

"This is a fantastic operation: Ukrainian 'OMEGA' battalion captured Russian troops in eastern region"

[Xavier]

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/the-us-is-afraid-of-losing-in-ukraine-or-winning-11660379690431.html

[james03]

The purported offensive has for months been a core talking point:

    Ukraine Battle Expands as Kyiv Launches Counteroffensive - New York Times - May 29, 2022
    Ukraine Regains Some Territory in Counter-Offensive in Kherson Area - Defence Ministry - Reuters - Jun 9, 2022
    Near Kherson, Ukrainians regain territory in major counteroffensive - Washington Post - Jun 29, 2022
    Ukraine prepares a counter-offensive to retake Kherson province - Economist - Jul 3, 2022
    Kherson cut off: Ukrainian counter-offensive gaining momentum in southern city - Fox News - Jul 29, 2022

Zelensky did another evacuation order.  Nikolayev.

The thrust of the article was that American Intelligence officials estimated Russia is now losing 500 troops a day - that's 15,000 per month if the War goes on.

American Intel?  The same people that lied about Russiagate?  The same officials that signed a letter saying Hunter's laptop was Russian disinfo?  Those people?  Next you'll be quoting WHO and CDC.

As far as the economic war, ask the Brit posse here how's that going and how they like their power bills.  Wait until the winter.  I expect Maximum Leader Putin^(TM) will force the Germans to open up Nordstream 2 sometime by then.