Author Topic: High Risk of Food Shortage in the US?  (Read 2720 times)

Offline Aulef

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High Risk of Food Shortage in the US?
« on: May 12, 2022, 02:53:58 PM »
Is it true? It has been hard to find decent news about this topic.

I am interested because I live in a country were food exports is huge and if there is food shortage in a country like the US, food commodities prices skyrocket and prices go up here as well since we have to compete with international demand (the current government here doesn't have a protectionist tendency in this case).
« Last Edit: May 12, 2022, 02:57:14 PM by Aulef »
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Offline james03

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Re: High Risk of Food Shortage in the US?
« Reply #1 on: May 12, 2022, 03:48:18 PM »
Won't be a general shortage here, the US is a big exporter and has access to nitrogen, phosporous from Florida, and Potash from Canada.  However with Russia and Ukraine shut down on exports, worldwide there will be shortages.  Also fertilizer shortages.  In the US certain niche products may come up short, but food will be available.  You'll just have to pay for it.

Prices are definitely going a lot higher for everyone.  Africa will be ground zero for starvation.  Eyes on Egypt.
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Offline james03

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Re: High Risk of Food Shortage in the US?
« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2022, 03:49:10 PM »
I'll add the diesel shortage will hit hard.  Big input in farming and also shipping.
"But he that doth not believe, is already judged: because he believeth not in the name of the only begotten Son of God (Jn 3:18)."

"All sorrow leads to the foot of the Cross.  Weep for your sins."

"Although He should kill me, I will trust in Him"
 

Offline MaximGun

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Re: High Risk of Food Shortage in the US?
« Reply #3 on: May 12, 2022, 05:32:02 PM »
I wonder if Putin will sell the grain to the developing world at affordable prices.  That woukd certainly win a lot of friends in Africa and other poorer places.

Problem is that corrupt officials in those countries might sell it back to Europe before it left the warehouses or ports.
 
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Offline Tennessean

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Re: High Risk of Food Shortage in the US?
« Reply #4 on: May 12, 2022, 07:04:52 PM »
lol food shortage? Grow a friggn garden. My countrymen are kinda lazy.
 
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Offline Jayne

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Re: High Risk of Food Shortage in the US?
« Reply #5 on: May 12, 2022, 08:31:36 PM »
lol food shortage? Grow a friggn garden. My countrymen are kinda lazy.

A large proportion, I'm guessing the majority, of your countrymen do not have the skills or resources to grow enough food to live on. 

I've been involved in self-sufficient gardening and your "solution" is not realistic. 
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Offline Tennessean

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Re: High Risk of Food Shortage in the US?
« Reply #6 on: May 13, 2022, 10:45:50 AM »
We'll have to learn.

I haven't noticed a shortage, just higher prices.
 
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Offline james03

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Re: High Risk of Food Shortage in the US?
« Reply #7 on: May 13, 2022, 10:52:19 AM »
I wonder if Putin will sell the grain to the developing world at affordable prices.  That woukd certainly win a lot of friends in Africa and other poorer places.

Problem is that corrupt officials in those countries might sell it back to Europe before it left the warehouses or ports.

The problem with grain and fertilizer is that the Ukrainians let loose a bunch of mines.  Ocean going traffic in the Black Sea is severely curtailed.  I believe one commercial ship was already hit.
"But he that doth not believe, is already judged: because he believeth not in the name of the only begotten Son of God (Jn 3:18)."

"All sorrow leads to the foot of the Cross.  Weep for your sins."

"Although He should kill me, I will trust in Him"
 

Offline Jayne

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Re: High Risk of Food Shortage in the US?
« Reply #8 on: May 13, 2022, 11:53:24 AM »
We'll have to learn.

Learning how to garden/farm takes time.  People who are inexperienced are likely to have poor yields until they figure out what they are doing.

But even if everyone wanted to grow food, over 80 % of the US population is in urban areas which means little or no access to land which can grow food.  I'm not saying that gardening is a bad idea.  This was actually officially encouraged during WW1 and WW2 and called Victory Gardens.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victory_garden
Quote
Victory gardens, also called war gardens or food gardens for defense, were vegetable, fruit, and herb gardens planted at private residences and public parks in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and Germany[1][2] during World War I and World War II. In wartime, governments encouraged people to plant victory gardens not only to supplement their rations but also to boost morale.[3] They were used along with rationing stamps and cards to reduce pressure on the public food supply. Besides indirectly aiding the war effort, these gardens were also considered a civil "morale booster" in that gardeners could feel empowered by their contribution of labor and rewarded by the produce grown. This made victory gardens a part of daily life on the home front.

But these countries were far less urbanized than they are now.  More people had suitable land and more people had gardening knowledge.  The situation today is very different.

Sometimes even people that appear to have land, might as well not have it, for all practical purposes.  I'm thinking of suburbs where a common construction practice is to strip all of the top soil off the land during the building process.  A thin layer is put back on to support a lawn, but one cannot easily grow vegetables in this soil.  It requires significant soil amendment.  Something that takes time, expense and knowledge.

It would not be a simple thing to have some sort of modern Victory Garden movement.  I doubt that it could be achieved to a degree that could significantly compensate for serious food shortages.  The obstacles to this should not be dismissed as mere laziness.

I do not mean to discourage anyone in a position to garden from doing so.  There are many reasons why it is a good thing, not only that it supplements one's food supply.  I can see it being quite beneficial for some, but not a large-scale solution for a national food shortage.

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Offline james03

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Re: High Risk of Food Shortage in the US?
« Reply #9 on: May 13, 2022, 12:23:28 PM »
You can't realistically live off a garden unless it is full of potatoes and corn.  It really is used to supply vitamins and minerals (assuming the soil is not depleted) to supplement hunting, fishing, and nut gathering.  You also have to have a source of fertilizer or utilize slash and burn.  The indians used junk fish which they buried next to their corn rows.  My dad taught us that, and we did grow some prize corn using the method.

If you have an acre or two, and fill it with beans, potatoes, and corn, you have a shot.  You really need to add protein and fat, like milk, fish, and meat, along with nuts if you have them, to do it right.  Probably the simplest protein supplement is catfish, since they eat anything.  You could even raise worms and throw them in your catfish pond to help fatten them up.  Chickens are also traditionally used (eggs are a superfood, and old hens go in the pot) along with a milk cow.

Basically if there is a food shortage millions will die.  The US is in good shape with food/fertilizer, so the main impact will be higher food prices, higher welfare checks, and an accelerated dollar death spiral.

Short term the dollar strengthens as the Fed tightens, but the Fed will have to give up within a year, if not months.  Watch the Bank of Japan and the yen to see our future.  The Chinese and Arabs will continue to outbid Americans for beef and pork (Chinese) when the dollar cracks and the foreigners sell off US debt to convert it to US food.  This will make food inflation worse.

The first step in developing a survival mindset is to realize that your standard of living is going to drop, and getting over the psychological shock that will cause.
"But he that doth not believe, is already judged: because he believeth not in the name of the only begotten Son of God (Jn 3:18)."

"All sorrow leads to the foot of the Cross.  Weep for your sins."

"Although He should kill me, I will trust in Him"
 
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Offline Jayne

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Re: High Risk of Food Shortage in the US?
« Reply #10 on: May 13, 2022, 12:32:15 PM »
You can't realistically live off a garden unless it is full of potatoes and corn.  It really is used to supply vitamins and minerals (assuming the soil is not depleted) to supplement hunting, fishing, and nut gathering.  You also have to have a source of fertilizer or utilize slash and burn.  The indians used junk fish which they buried next to their corn rows.  My dad taught us that, and we did grow some prize corn using the method.

If you have an acre or two, and fill it with beans, potatoes, and corn, you have a shot.  You really need to add protein and fat, like milk, fish, and meat, along with nuts if you have them, to do it right.  Probably the simplest protein supplement is catfish, since they eat anything.  You could even raise worms and throw them in your catfish pond to help fatten them up.  Chickens are also traditionally used (eggs are a superfood, and old hens go in the pot) along with a milk cow.

Basically if there is a food shortage millions will die.  The US is in good shape with food/fertilizer, so the main impact will be higher food prices, higher welfare checks, and an accelerated dollar death spiral.

I agree with all this.

(I'm writing because I really agree but also because I want to see if everyone can stand the shock of me agreeing with James.  :) )
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Offline Heinrich

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Re: High Risk of Food Shortage in the US?
« Reply #11 on: May 14, 2022, 12:29:03 PM »
There is chatter of diesel shortages.
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Offline MushroomRooster

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Re: High Risk of Food Shortage in the US?
« Reply #12 on: May 14, 2022, 12:51:35 PM »
We have free-range chickens so I guess we're kind of set. Growing has been tough since the weather is still not warm enough and we mostly have sandy soil. We trade our eggs for beef with the locals. And, there are some deer on our property.

 
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Offline Jayne

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Re: High Risk of Food Shortage in the US?
« Reply #13 on: May 14, 2022, 01:19:09 PM »
We have free-range chickens so I guess we're kind of set. Growing has been tough since the weather is still not warm enough and we mostly have sandy soil. We trade our eggs for beef with the locals. And, there are some deer on our property.

Getting animal protein is more important than plants so I doubt you need to worry about the short growing season.  You seem to be in a good position.
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Online Miriam_M

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Re: High Risk of Food Shortage in the US?
« Reply #14 on: May 14, 2022, 01:42:20 PM »
I'll add the diesel shortage will hit hard.  Big input in farming and also shipping.

Present tense, not "will," according to some people I know in farming -- for them, at least.