North Korea economy not likely to survive 1 year: Defector

Started by Xavier, November 01, 2017, 02:25:50 AM

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Xavier

Can North Korea be starved? Is it better to barricade them in with crippling sanctions until they come begging to us for food? A common war strategy in ancient times. The only payment that is acceptable will be the disposal or sale of all weapons they have.

A defector who fled North Korea owing to the many rampant cruelties of the regime also stated their economy is unlikely to survive another year. Its time to be tougher on China and it seems it just may be prudent to wait a while.

What do you folks think?

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/17/north-koreas-economy-may-not-survive-another-year-defector-says.html
Bible verses on walking blamelessly with God, after being forgiven from our former sins. Some verses here: https://dailyverses.net/blameless

"[2] He that walketh without blemish, and worketh justice:[3] He that speaketh truth in his heart, who hath not used deceit in his tongue: Nor hath done evil to his neighbour: nor taken up a reproach against his neighbours.(Psalm 14)

"[2] For in many things we all offend. If any man offend not in word, the same is a perfect man."(James 3)

"[14] And do ye all things without murmurings and hesitations; [15] That you may be blameless, and sincere children of God, without reproof, in the midst of a crooked and perverse generation; among whom you shine as lights in the world." (Phil 2:14-15)

Maximilian

Quote from: Xavier on November 01, 2017, 02:25:50 AM

A defector who fled North Korea owing to the many rampant cruelties of the regime also stated their economy is unlikely to survive another year.

What do you folks think?

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/17/north-koreas-economy-may-not-survive-another-year-defector-says.html

This will be a good test of whether the anti-North Korea drumbeat is real or whether it's all propaganda. Let's see if North Korea is still around a year from now.

Jacob

Who is this guy?  What's his agenda?  What makes now different from the Nork Famine?
"Arguing with anonymous strangers on the Internet is a sucker's game because they almost always turn out to be—or to be indistinguishable from—self-righteous sixteen-year-olds possessing infinite amounts of free time."
--Neal Stephenson

dolores

Given what the North Korea regime has survived in the past, I'm not sure a collapsed economy is enough to bring it down.  Remember, this is the same regime that allowed 3 million of its citizens to die of starvation from 1994 to 1998, and still endured.

Xavier

Hmm. Good point. Its not always to understand the rationale of a dictatorship that allows millions of its citizens to die by starvation. But at the least popular anger may turn against Kim if they have little to no food while their neighbors South Korea prosper. After they become a little more sensible, we can negotiate for them to stop firing rockets. For now, thats the best strategy I can see to deal with North Korea, because millions of people will die in hours through even a conventional war, let alone a nuclear strike. Doing nothing is not an option, otherwise it will be worse in a few years. So sanctions, more pressure and incentives to spend more money on food and basic necessities rather than threatening to attack Guam, South Korea or Japan seems to be the best way to go.
Bible verses on walking blamelessly with God, after being forgiven from our former sins. Some verses here: https://dailyverses.net/blameless

"[2] He that walketh without blemish, and worketh justice:[3] He that speaketh truth in his heart, who hath not used deceit in his tongue: Nor hath done evil to his neighbour: nor taken up a reproach against his neighbours.(Psalm 14)

"[2] For in many things we all offend. If any man offend not in word, the same is a perfect man."(James 3)

"[14] And do ye all things without murmurings and hesitations; [15] That you may be blameless, and sincere children of God, without reproof, in the midst of a crooked and perverse generation; among whom you shine as lights in the world." (Phil 2:14-15)

Greg

Only 1 more decade and it will have outlasted the Soviet Union.
Contentment is knowing that you're right. Happiness is knowing that someone else is wrong.

Gardener

Quote from: Xavier on November 03, 2017, 01:26:33 AM
Hmm. Good point. Its not always to understand the rationale of a dictatorship that allows millions of its citizens to die by starvation. But at the least popular anger may turn against Kim if they have little to no food while their neighbors South Korea prosper. After they become a little more sensible, we can negotiate for them to stop firing rockets. For now, thats the best strategy I can see to deal with North Korea, because millions of people will die in hours through even a conventional war, let alone a nuclear strike. Doing nothing is not an option, otherwise it will be worse in a few years. So sanctions, more pressure and incentives to spend more money on food and basic necessities rather than threatening to attack Guam, South Korea or Japan seems to be the best way to go.

Before and after Operation Desert Storm (CNN's grand 100 hours of grainy, black and green footage of real world US Weapons testing), there was no real popular love for Saddam Hussein outside a small tribal circle. But Saddam had a setup where every man, woman, and child was afraid to say anything to anyone that wasn't glowing about him. And he wasn't even deified like the Kims are. The Iraqi Secret Police, much like the German Stazi, had a network of informants so broad and deep that brother would inform against brother, husband against wife, and child against parent for even facial expressions contra-Saddam. Abu Ghraib, before it became a place for Military Police reservists to live out their depraved torture fantasies, was a place for Iraqi psychopaths to torture and kill anyone who hinted at or actually did go against the regime. Mahmoud Saeed's "Saddam City" gives a good idea on what living under his regime was like for anyone who fell into suspicion. For the people of Iraq, especially the Shia, not much actually changed as far as daily reality went.

The reality for North Korea is much worse due to the deification and the Kim dynastic rule. While there might be a subcurrent of realization about the NK regime, no sanctions will help it cease. They have at this point 2 generations of cult-like Kim glory. They have an informant network built in to their culture. How one breaks that enough to allow popular uprising, I have no idea. Frankly, I don't think the best minds in the revolution factory at Langley have any idea either.

The only way out is either the death of Kim Jong Un and whomever takes over somehow changing it slowly, or a hot war which obliterates South Korea as the sacrificial victim and a Chinese takeover with an installed puppet in the North.
But how does it change even in a generation? Everyone in charge under Kim Jong Un is just as much in trouble by a status quo change as Kim, and the people have no hope of extricating themselves due to 60+ years of knowing only the omnipotence and omniscience of the regime. Even if they don't believe in actuality, they're all so ignorant and brainwashed it would necessitate a mere regime change rather than freeing the oppressed. How does one integrate them without driving them utterly insane by the information overload? It would be like giving a starved man access to a buffet -- the cure of food could kill him quicker than the starvation.

We're in something worse than a Mexican Standoff. It's a North Korean standoff, where the NK side is willing to die and take everyone with them. You don't win a standoff with a suicidal person. You kill them or they kill you, simply. It's awful and egregious and impossible.

A regime decapitation quickly results in every conventional weapon they have been unloaded on Seoul. The status quo remaining could result in the same. At what point do we gamble that the suicidal hostage taker can be overpowered without him taking out the hostages? At what point do we gamble that a kill switch command doesn't result in the inner circle giving the order to every commander on the DMZ to unleash a barrage of artillery and automatons? At what point do we realize perhaps the Russian SWAT method (kill the bad guy and the hostages) is really the only way out?

It's a giant poop sandwich and at some point everyone will have to take a bite.

"Does this mean that Ann Margaret isn't coming?" - Good Morning Vietnam

"If anyone does not wish to have Mary Immaculate for his Mother, he will not have Christ for his Brother." - St. Maximilian Kolbe

Jacob

Quote from: Gardener on November 03, 2017, 06:51:48 AM
"Does this mean that Ann Margaret isn't coming?" - Good Morning Vietnam

*cough*FullMetalJacket*cough*
"Arguing with anonymous strangers on the Internet is a sucker's game because they almost always turn out to be—or to be indistinguishable from—self-righteous sixteen-year-olds possessing infinite amounts of free time."
--Neal Stephenson

Gardener

Quote from: Jacob on November 03, 2017, 09:02:55 AM
Quote from: Gardener on November 03, 2017, 06:51:48 AM
"Does this mean that Ann Margaret isn't coming?" - Good Morning Vietnam

*cough*FullMetalJacket*cough*

Good catch. I always get my comedies mixed up.
"If anyone does not wish to have Mary Immaculate for his Mother, he will not have Christ for his Brother." - St. Maximilian Kolbe

Xavier

Quote from: GardenerWe're in something worse than a Mexican Standoff. It's a North Korean standoff, where the NK side is willing to die and take everyone with them. You don't win a standoff with a suicidal person. You kill them or they kill you, simply. It's awful and egregious and impossible.

True, its an extremely difficult situation, however, by the grace of God, nothing will be impossible.

It seems to me Kim is not determined to kill himself and take everyone with him if he can help it; otherwise, he would have already done so. He's used to terrorising his own people, treating himself like a god, making North Koreans follow him like a cult leader, and thinks he can bully his way on the world stage - North Korea's economy is very bad (see below the many facts President Trump documents, in the link) and Kim earlier successfully got the US to give food and other aid after agreeing (then not fulfilling) to stop its aggression. He may have thought the same would work on Trump. It has not. It's been almost 60 days since the last missile test, something about Trump's strategy is working. What do we have to lose by pursuing the same for another year or so?

President Trump's speech in South Korea about the dangers posed by North Korea was just simply breathtaking. Nothing even from Mr. peace-prize-winner-ISIS enabler-and-war-in-libya-starter Obama comes close. The mainstream media tries to drown it out and pretend President Trump doesn't know what he's talking about, whereas neither of the Bushes, Obama, or Clinton has done as much to rein in the rogue regime as Trump has done within his first year. North Korea is increasingly isolated, China is cutting off most ties, and Russia is likely to do the same. Sanctions and peace through strength will work and deserve a chance.



Quote...The world cannot tolerate the menace of a rogue regime that threatens with nuclear devastation. All responsible nations must join forces to isolate the brutal regime of North Korea, to deny it and any form, any form of it, you cannot support, you cannot supply, you cannot accept.

We call on every nation, including China and Russia, to fully implement U.N. Security Council resolutions, downgrade diplomatic relations with the regime and sever all ties of trade and technology. It is our responsibility and our duty to confront this danger together, because the longer we wait, the greater the danger grows and the fewer the options become.

And to those nations that choose to ignore this threat — or worse still, to enable it — the weight of this crisis is on your conscience. I also have come here to this peninsula to deliver a message directly to the leader of the North Korean dictatorship.

The weapons you are acquiring are not making you safer. They are putting your regime in grave danger. Every step you take down this dark path increases the peril you face. North Korea is not the paradise your grandfather envisioned. It is a hell that no person deserves.

Yet despite every crime you have committed against God and man, you are ready to offer — and we will do that — we will offer a path to a much better future. It begins with an end to the aggression of your regime, a stop to your development of ballistic missiles, and complete, verifiable and total denuclearization.

A sky-top view of this peninsula shows a nation of dazzling light in the South and a mass of impenetrable darkness in the North. We seek a future of light, prosperity, and peace. But we are only prepared to discuss this brighter path for North Korea if its leaders cease their threats and dismantle their nuclear program.

The sinister regime of North Korea is right about only one thing: The Korean people do have a glorious destiny. But they could not be more wrong about what that destiny looks like. The destiny of the Korean people is not to suffer in the bondage of oppression but to thrive in the glory of freedom.

What South Koreans have achieved on this peninsula is more than a victory for your nation. It is a victory for every nation that believes in the human spirit. And it is our hope that someday soon all of your brothers and sisters of the North will be able to enjoy the fullest of life intended by God.

Your republic shows us all of what is possible. In just a few decades, with only the hard work, courage and talents of your people, you turned this war-torn land into a nation blessed with wealth, rich in culture and deep in spirit. You built a home where all families can flourish and where all children can shine and be happy.

This Korea stands strong and tall among the great community of independent, confident, and peace-loving nations. We are nations that respect our citizens, cherish our liberty, treasure our sovereignty, and control our own destiny. We affirm the dignity of every person and embrace the full potential of every soul. And we are always prepared to defend the vital interests of our people against the cruel ambition of tyrants.

Together, we dream of a Korea that is free, a peninsula that is safe, and families that are reunited once again. We dream of highways connecting North and South, of cousins embracing cousins, and this nuclear nightmare replaced with the beautiful promise of peace.

Until that day comes, we stand strong and alert. Our eyes are fixed to the North and our hearts praying for the day when all Koreans can live in freedom.

Thank you. God bless you. God bless the Korean people. Thank you very much. Thank you.
Bible verses on walking blamelessly with God, after being forgiven from our former sins. Some verses here: https://dailyverses.net/blameless

"[2] He that walketh without blemish, and worketh justice:[3] He that speaketh truth in his heart, who hath not used deceit in his tongue: Nor hath done evil to his neighbour: nor taken up a reproach against his neighbours.(Psalm 14)

"[2] For in many things we all offend. If any man offend not in word, the same is a perfect man."(James 3)

"[14] And do ye all things without murmurings and hesitations; [15] That you may be blameless, and sincere children of God, without reproof, in the midst of a crooked and perverse generation; among whom you shine as lights in the world." (Phil 2:14-15)

james03

QuoteThey have an informant network built in to their culture. How one breaks that enough to allow popular uprising, I have no idea.

Do you want to know the future?  It is a government boot crushing a human face ....... forever.
"But he that doth not believe, is already judged: because he believeth not in the name of the only begotten Son of God (Jn 3:18)."

"All sorrow leads to the foot of the Cross.  Weep for your sins."

"Although He should kill me, I will trust in Him"


Lambda Phage

#12
Quote from: Xavier on November 12, 2017, 11:27:52 AM

True, its an extremely difficult situation, however, by the grace of God, nothing will be impossible.

It seems to me Kim is not determined to kill himself and take everyone with him if he can help it; otherwise, he would have already done so. He's used to terrorising his own people, treating himself like a god, making North Koreans follow him like a cult leader, and thinks he can bully his way on the world stage - North Korea's economy is very bad (see below the many facts President Trump documents, in the link) and Kim earlier successfully got the US to give food and other aid after agreeing (then not fulfilling) to stop its aggression. He may have thought the same would work on Trump. It has not. It's been almost 60 days since the last missile test, something about Trump's strategy is working. What do we have to lose by pursuing the same for another year or so?

President Trump's speech in South Korea about the dangers posed by North Korea was just simply breathtaking. Nothing even from Mr. peace-prize-winner-ISIS enabler-and-war-in-libya-starter Obama comes close. The mainstream media tries to drown it out and pretend President Trump doesn't know what he's talking about, whereas neither of the Bushes, Obama, or Clinton has done as much to rein in the rogue regime as Trump has done within his first year. North Korea is increasingly isolated, China is cutting off most ties, and Russia is likely to do the same. Sanctions and peace through strength will work and deserve a chance.



Trump is the best statesman in the room by far. Every move he has made on the international stage beginning with the Tomahawk missiles in Syria has been perfect. Remember that? Remember how the dimwitted were saying that was world war 3?

Back then I said in 6 months everyone will forget about it and attention will be on Korea, and that China and Russia are not going to be on N Korea's side. It was more like 3 weeks, but anyway, nothing happened in Syria, but now everyone (Kim) knows Trump is not afraid to use force.

That said, anyone who has paid attention to and understands Trump knows he does not want to get involved in a prolonged conflict. Trump wants to focus on domestic economic growth above everything else because that's the key to his re-election. Prolonged conflict is not conducive to that end. This is simply brilliant statecraft, reminiscent of the leaders of old.

I do not think N Korea wants a war. Kim may be a tyrant but he is not completely void of reason. He knows he will lose. He is banking on Trump being like all other Western leaders and backing down. Trump in turn is banking on Kim backing down but has considerably more leverage and if war does break out, Trump can honestly say he has exhausted all alternatives. It would end quickly. We literally have him surrounded. Trump has won the game. I do think Kim will eventually back down. He will not say it or admit to it , and it won't be overt, but eventually his name will just fade away in the news, or at least he won't be a weekly headline. In fact it's already happening. And Kim's recent remark about how inhumane the sanctions are is 100% proof positive that it is working and that he is seriously feeling the heat. That was a major mistake on Kim's part to say that. Dead giveaway.

If that doesn't happen, it's not going to be world war 3. Nobody will stand with N Korea. It will not even be like the GWOT. Unlike his predecessors, Trump knows how to properly fight a war. And unlike our previous enemies, this one has an easily identifiable public structure with nowhere to hide and no mass ideological terrorist following. It would be over quickly. The North Korean populace won't give a crap when he's gone.

Kim will not nuke us because he knows his country would be obliterated. He means to rule his country, which he can't do if he's dead or if his country is a pile of ash. With the show Trump has put on we could invade at any moment and it will appear justified. Kim would be dead before he could give the nuclear order.

In conclusion, this is most likely another case of "nothing will happen." You'd think with how often nothing happens, that would be the standard hypothesis here.

Sorry it's not a big juicy end times drama for the "2017 is the year it all ends!" crowd.

Lambda Phage

#13
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-sanctions-reactio/north-korea-calls-for-a-halt-to-brutal-sanctions-idUSKBN1D32CG

North Korea essentially admits the defector is right.

In light of this, no one will be able to say we did not exhaust the alternatives.

Kim is screwed. The only chance this guy has is by doing exactly what Trump says. He either fades into the background, or seals his fate.

Kirin

The North Korean economy has been dead for a long time already, certainly there are pretty shops working on western currencies the party elite use but the average North Korean peasant has been operating by direct barter for at least two decades now to supplement minimal/no income from state labor according to the likes of Victor Cha; a former advisor to the White House on North Korea during the Clinton and Bush regimes. He has written several excellent books upon the subject.