Ukraine War Battle Report 1-31

[james03]

Not much has changed.  Russia is making slow gains with both pincers around Bakhmut.  Ukraine committed the 1st armor brigade to Ugledar, a major set back for Ukraine.

High level views:

I am not convinced that Russia will launch The Big One.  I give it 70%.  On one hand, from a strategic viewpoint, it is in Russia's interest to stretch things out for years.  This prolongs the devastation to the Euro economy, eliminates large numbers of NATO heavy arms (Euro-NATO is already severely depleted), and will result in the fall of many ZOG European governments, being replaced by populists who don't have a revenge fantasy against Russia.  In fact, Ceteris Paribus, if I were Maximum Leader James03ski in charge of Russia, I'd prolong the war.

Against this is Murphy's law.  Western governments, addicted to coke and whores (hoes according to Diaduit) are getting desperate as they see the complete collapse of a major looting and money laundering operation get destroyed.  And desperate people do stupid things like start WW3, which is definitely not in the interest of Russia.  You also have the overhanging revenge fantasy of ZOG against Russia and Germany that's hanging out there.

All told, the Russians know the risks, and so their likely move is to launch The Big One soon.

Another comment, I'm suspicious that Ugledar is a southern version of the meat grinder.  When analyzing Russia it is critical to remove the Western bias at taking land.  As I said previously neither the American Blitzkrieg or the Russian Cauldron are "better" operational tactics.  They have their strengths and weaknesses.  That being said, the Russian military ignores land conquest, except as a means to form a cauldron or interrupt logistics.  Land conquest comes at the end.  The main motivation of the Russian Doctrine is to destroy the opposing military.

So it is possible the Russians are setting up a southern cauldron and will sit back and continue to allow Ukrainians to pour in men to get slaughtered.

Or it could be part of The Big One, shaping the southern front.

[Julio]

^^I shall go back to my take on this that Putin is reserving its army. Just in case there will be WW3 it needs very strong land force to defend itself. In the meantime, it can utilize those Ukrainians that took allegiance to Russia. As I've stated those pictures shown by Russia regarding its large warplanes last December 22 were more on propaganda purposes.

The ground in Ukraine is now hard enough to execute the attack but Russia is not doing it. Soon, the snow shall melt and it will be back to muddy ground again. Putin is able to do his thing anyway using the Ukrainian crisis to do his bidding around the world like what Russia is doing right now in Africa.