Russia Invades Ukraine

[Xavier]

From: https://www.thebulwark.com/with-enough-help-ukraine-can-win/?amp

"With Enough Help, Ukraine Can Win

There's a difference between not losing and winning. Support from the United States could determine Ukraine's fate.

AUGUST 8, 2022

Recent Western intelligence estimates of Russian losses in Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine raise serious doubts about the Russian military's ability to sustain its offensive operations for an extended period. With the possibility that Russian forces cannot keep up their wholly unprovoked and unjustified aggression, and may even experience a collapse, the United States, together with its allies, must provide Ukraine with everything it needs to defeat Putin's military. Time is of the essence.

There is a difference between thwarting Russia's maximal objectives and Ukrainian victory. Playing for a tie runs the risk that Russia can accomplish in a war of attrition what it failed to achieve in its initial blitzkrieg: the destruction of a functioning, sovereign, independent Ukraine. Moreover, allowing this fight to devolve into an "endless war" risks endangering the lives of many more Ukrainians and jeopardizing continued popular support in the West for assisting Ukraine.

More than 75,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured since Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, according to Rep. Elissa Slotkin, based on a briefing from the U.S. intelligence community. "Over 80 percent of their land forces are bogged down, and they're tired," she added. If true, that would be roughly half of all Russian combat forces sent to invade Ukraine.

"I think they're about to run out of steam," said British spy chief Richard Moore during the recent Aspen Security Conference, echoing the view of U.S. intelligence that such staggering losses raise questions about Russia's ability to sustain its campaign. "I think our assessment is that the Russians will increasingly find it difficult to supply manpower [and] material over the next few weeks. They will have to pause in some way and that will give the Ukrainians opportunities to strike back."

What remains uncertain is whether the Ukrainians, who have executed a brilliant defensive campaign to thwart Russian imperial ambitions, can now transition to the strategic offensive and take back the territory occupied by the invaders.

Morale among the Russian military, low even at the outset of the campaign, is dropping. Reports of soldiers turning on their commanding officers, Russian men seeking to avoid service, and Wagner mercenaries recruiting forces from Russian prisons add to the sense that things are going very badly for Putin. Thanks to the tremendous bravery and determination of Ukrainians, Putin's goals of decapitating the Ukrainian leadership and occupying much of Ukrainian territory have failed miserably.

Ukrainians, of course, are paying a horrific price for Putin's decision to invade. Untold thousands have been killed by marauding Russian forces, many the victims of war crimes and acts of genocide, and millions have been displaced. The toll on Ukraine's economy is staggering.

Ukrainian officials have been reluctant to release figures on the number of their forces killed and injured, but morale is on their side. War is a contest of wills and Russia's campaign of atrocities and war crimes is hardening the determination of Ukrainians to resist. What is for Putin an imperial war of choice is for them a war of survival. As Putin himself is fond of saying, a cornered rat has no choice but to fight back.

The fight for Ukraine's east and south is different from the fight for the country's western half. Different and longer-range weapons systems are required to maintain the Ukrainian military's momentum and to try and wrestle back occupied territories. Already, the supply of Western weapons systems is making a serious difference. For the first time, Ukrainian artillery can outrange their opponents. U.S. and allied shipments of HIMARS in particular have enabled Ukraine to take out Russian artillery and ammunition depots as well as command posts, leaving already vulnerable Russian forces cut off and exposed. The Biden administration should be accelerating the delivery of even more and longer-range systems to enable the Ukrainians to defeat the Russian forces more quickly and decisively.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin was half right when he said in April that the U.S. wants to "see Russia weakened to the degree that it can't do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine." The White House reportedly was unhappy with Austin's blunt message, but that is because the National Security Council has consistently been reluctant to provide Ukraine with the decisive assistance it needs. What Secretary Austin failed to say is the only possible way to weaken Russia is to defeat Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

"While a key goal of the United States is to do the needful to support and defend Ukraine," Jake Sullivan, President Biden's national security adviser, said at last month's Aspen Security Forum, "another key goal is to ensure that we do not end up in a circumstance where we're heading down the road towards a third world war."

Providing "needful" support is woefully inadequate. Moreover, concerns about avoiding World War III seem overblown. Although a prudent concern with escalation risks always is wise, the course of this conflict suggests that Putin's red line is direct U.S. or NATO involvement. Accelerating and increasing military assistance to Ukraine should not come close to breaching it.

Sullivan's comments also reveal the divide within the administration, with the NSC much more reticent than the State Department and Pentagon to tip the military balance clearly in Ukraine's favor. While not as bad as some who wrongly and shamefully argued against providing military assistance to Ukraine even before the invasion, the NSC's position suggests nervousness that Ukraine could actually defeat Russia. And yet that should absolutely be the goal of U.S. assistance: to help Ukraine defeat Russia.

The time when incremental support was sufficient has passed. Ukraine's needs are known. The United States needs to lead an allied surge to provide a massive U.S. and allied heavy weaponry support package to Kyiv while the Ukrainian military is able to further degrade the Russian forces. The $1 billion defense aid package reportedly being prepared is a welcome step, as would be the decision to give Ukraine American fighter jets, but these tranches of support must come more quickly and more often. The sooner we can help Ukraine defeat the Russian military, the sooner the killing of innocent Ukrainians will come to an end. The sooner that happens, the safer other parts of Europe at risk of Russian aggression will be. And then, perhaps, Putin's grip on power might be challenged, which would be a welcome relief for many Russians who have suffered under his increasingly fascist rule.

We also need to ratchet up our sanctions on Russia and close any loopholes that enable evasion by Russian banks or oligarchs. The sanctions that already have been imposed have had a major effect on the Russian economy, leading to layoffs and shortages. The Russian ruble, which has strengthened since its dive after the February invasion, has more recently swung wildly in value as Russia's macroeconomic band-aids start to peel off and long-term economic uncertainty returns. Europe needs to accelerate its plans to reduce its dependence on Russian energy, still an important source of revenue for Putin. Together with serious military assistance for Ukraine, tougher economic sanctions on Putin and his regime will weaken Russia's ability to carry out its aggression against Ukraine.

Many believe the war cannot be won on the battlefield and that there will be a negotiated settlement. This is probably too optimistic. The sides are too far apart to see what a constructive, enforceable, lasting settlement could look like, and the vast majority of Ukrainians oppose any negotiations that require any concessions from Kyiv.

It is up to Ukrainians to decide when or if to negotiate with Russia, but it is in our interest to strengthen their hand as much as possible right now. We should prepare for the possibility of escalation by the Russian side, not be paralyzed by fear of it. Thanks to the heroism of the Ukrainians, we have an opportunity to deal the Putin regime a serious, maybe even fatal, blow. It will not last long."

[james03]

From: https://www.thebulwark.com/with-enough-help-ukraine-can-win/?amp

"If NATO Nukes Russia, Ukraine Can Win

There's a difference between not losing and winning. Support from the United States could determine Ukraine's fate.

AUGUST 8, 2022

Recent Western intelligence estimates of Russian losses in Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine raise serious doubts about the Russian military's ability to sustain its offensive operations for an extended period. With the possibility that Russian forces cannot keep up their wholly unprovoked and unjustified aggression, and may even experience a collapse, the United States, together with its allies, must provide Ukraine with everything it needs to defeat Putin's military. Time is of the essence.  Nato needs to nuke Russia today.

[james03]

Update on the HARM (anti-radar) missiles:

Now these low-altitude flights came in handy. They scattered and felt confident, preparing to receive anti-radar missiles. The mounts were mastered on the example of the Romanian MiGs, where such a mount was put on American missiles. In a word, the enemy is focusing on high-tech warfare.

3. Counterattacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson direction - northeast of Kherson on the river. The Ingulets choked. It was difficult to expect otherwise, since the enemy regularly launches infantry without cover. The attacking groups fall under the fire of Russian artillery and are crushed. Let's do more!

So it looks like conversion kits were already figured out in Romania.  Likely some Ukraine jets were also converted, which explains how they can use a HARM.

[Xavier]

Great to see Great Britain and Denmark step up and contribute more to the collective defense and security of Europe. At this rate, the War could end by Christ-Mas, with a Peaceful Russian Withdrawal. Peace through Strength always works. Appeasement, hardly. The signs are clearer than ever that God is giving Europe more time to do Penance, return to Christ, and rebuild Christendom.

The Russians will also surely play a part in the coming re-evangelization of the West. However, it will be Missionaries and Priests who do that, with the Gospel and the Sacraments, not airplanes with bombs and rockets disturbing peaceful countries.

From: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/aug/11/russia-ukraine-war-first-wheat-shipments-to-leave-next-week-un-to-discuss-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-crisis-live

"UK and Denmark set out further support for Ukraine

Britain and Denmark will provide more financial and military aid to Ukraine, they said on Thursday as European defence ministers met in Copenhagen to discuss long-term support for the country's defence against Russia's invasion.

Britain, which has already donated advanced weapons systems to Ukraine and given thousands of its troops military training, said it would send more multiple-launch rocket systems, Reuters reported.

It would also donate a "significant number" of precision-guided M31A1 missiles that can strike targets up to 80km (50 miles) away.

"This latest tranche of military support will enable the armed forces of Ukraine to continue to defend against Russian aggression and the indiscriminate use of long-range artillery," the UK defence secretary, Ben Wallace, said in a statement.

"Our continued support sends a very clear message: Britain and the international community remain opposed to this illegal war and will stand shoulder-to-shoulder, providing defensive military aid to Ukraine to help them defend against Putin's invasion."

Denmark will increase its financial aid to Ukraine by 110m euros, said the Danish prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, at a conference in Copenhagen hosted by Ukraine, Denmark and Britain.

She added: "This is a war on the values that Europe and the free world are built upon ... Today we reaffirm our commitment to support of Ukraine."

[Xavier]

From the same link above:

"Russia's invasion of Ukraine 'starting to fail', says UK defence secretary

The British defence secretary has said Vladimir Putin is now unlikely to succeed in occupying Ukraine.

Ben Wallace said that Russia's invasion of Ukraine had "faltered" and was "starting to fail", as he pledged more financial and military support to the eastern European nation's defence.

Denmark joined the UK in offering more aid to Ukraine at a conference in Copenhagen on Thursday, co-hosted by Wallace. The defence secretary said it was important to understand that fighting and loss of life was still taking place, but added Russia was "starting to fail in many areas".

He said:

They have failed so far and are unlikely to ever succeed in occupying Ukraine.

Their invasion has faltered and constantly been re-modified to the extent they are really only focusing in parts of the south and in the east, a long, long way away from their three-day so-called special operation.

Three days are now over 150 days and nearly six months in, with huge significant losses of both equipment and indeed Russian personnel.



British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace speaks during a news conference after hosting a donor conference, together with Ukrainian and Danish defence ministers. Photograph: Ritzau Scanpix/Reuters

He added:

President Putin will have gambled that come August, come a few months in, we will have all got bored of the conflict and the international community would have gone off in different directions. Well, today is proof of the opposite.

We have come out of this meeting with more pledges of finance, more pledges of training and more pledges of military aid, all designed to help Ukraine win, to help Ukraine stand up for its sovereignty and indeed to ensure that president Putin's ambitions fail in Ukraine as they rightly should."

[james03]

a long, long way away from their three-day so-called special operation.

Three days are now over 150 days and nearly six months in, with huge significant losses of both equipment and indeed Russian personnel.

Projection is really incredible.  The only mention of "3 days" was with regards to Russia running out of cruise missiles.  Months ago Russia said it does not have a time table.  And they never said that the SMO will only last 3 days.

with huge significant losses of both equipment and indeed Russian personnel.

Anyone talking about "Russian" losses, and does not distinguish between Russia, LPR, and DPR is a fraud.  The LPR and DPR don't care.  They just want to kill Ruthenians after all the terror shelling.

The article makes no mention of the complete liberation of Lugansk Oblast.

[Xavier]

Life is Winning. Death is Losing. No to War. War is Insanity. Millions die, bleed and suffer because of Unjust Wars. I will never support this.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/russia-struggles-to-replenish-its-troops-in-ukraine/articleshow/93498990.cms

"men in uniform arrived and offered them amnesty - if they agreed to fight alongside the Russian Army in Ukraine." The shame.

[mikemac]

...
Moscow's excuse-making has sometimes verged on the surreal. In an apparent bid to explain why the much-vaunted Russian military has so far failed to overcome Ukrainian resistance, members of a Russian parliamentary commission declared in mid-July that Ukraine was using mutant soldiers who had been transformed into superhuman killing machines by American scientists. Commission co-chairs and serving Russian MPs Konstantin Kosachev and Irina Yarovaya were quoted in Russian newspaper Kommersant claiming to have uncovered evidence that Ukrainian servicemen were being transformed into "deadly monsters" in laboratories under US supervision.
...

I think it's true. 

They better run home.

[Julio]

^^I do not see that as propaganda to cover the alleged Russian failures. Rather that was made by those quoted politicians as public statements in order to stir anger and hatred against the Americans and the Ukrainians. Take note that Russia is painting the U.S. like some kind of high-tech evil empire. More hatred from the Russians means more desire to kill the enemy and support Putin's war for easier recruitment of soldiers.

[Xavier]

Commie China is watching. Those who recognize the threat China poses to the World should be happy Russia is losing in Ukraine.

https://www.businessinsider.in/international/news/russias-strategic-failure-in-ukraine-is-likely-to-affect-chinas-decision-on-how-and-when-to-invade-taiwan-says-cia-chief/articleshow/93018372.cms

"Russia's 'strategic failure' in Ukraine is likely to affect China's decision on 'how and when' to invade Taiwan, says CIA chief


CIA chief Bill Burns said China may be picking up lessons from Russia's failures in Ukraine.
He said the war likely won't shake China's resolve to invade Taiwan but affects the "how and when."

Central Intelligence Agency director William Burns said on Wednesday that Russia's struggles in Ukraine would likely affect "how and when" China decides to invade Taiwan.

Speaking to NBC at the Aspen Security Forum, Burns said the Chinese may have learned vital lessons from the war.

He speculated that the Chinese have likely been left "unsettled" by the poor performance of Russian troops and Russian President Vladimir Putin's "strategic failure" in Ukraine.

Despite these concerns, Burns warned that Chinese President Xi Jinping's determination to "assert China's control" over Taiwan should not be underestimated.

"I think the Chinese leadership is trying to study the lessons of Russia's invasion of Ukraine," he said. "I think our sense is that it probably affects less the question of whether the Chinese leadership might choose some years down the road to use force to control Taiwan, but how and when they would do it."

Burns added that China had likely observed that "overwhelming force" would be necessary to ensure "quick, decisive victories" in any invasion attempt. He compared this to Russia's drawn-out conflict in Ukraine, which he said was "not a sustainable political endgame."

With such factors in mind, Burns said the Chinese leadership might be looking to "amass overwhelming force," and "shore up" their economy against possible international sanctions.

As for Xi's immediate priorities, Burns said he is likely focused on cementing his power during the upcoming Communist Party Congress and keeping the Chinese economy afloat. However, he added that the chances of a Taiwan invasion would be "higher" in the latter part of the 2020s.

The Chinese government has claimed Taiwan as a "renegade province" that is part of its territory, while the Taiwanese view the island as an independently ruled, self-governing state with its own military.

Political figures — including former President Donald Trump — have speculated that China would likely attempt a military assault on Taiwan, particularly after Putin invaded Ukraine in February. The Taiwanese are currently attempting to shore up their defenses in preparation for a potential Chinese invasion by training for urban warfare.

[Xavier]

On Fox News, Conservative Mark Levin says NATO and US Support of Ukraine is definitely Good and Right. Video in the link below: https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-study-russia-failures-cia-director-taiwan-invasion

China 'trying to study' Russia's failures; CIA director 'wouldn't rule out' near-term Taiwan invasion


"Former CIA director warns against Russia, China threats: 'Deterrence is the key here'
Former CIA Director Gen. David Petraeus urges American leadership to practice deterrence against China, stay strong against Russia as the global stage faces 'renewed great-power rivalries.'

CIA Director William Burns suggested that China would carefully study Russia's many failures in Ukraine, which might inform "how and when" Beijing may invade Taiwan.

"I think our sense is that it probably affects less the question of whether the Chinese leadership might choose some years down the road to use force to control Taiwan, but how and when they would do it," Burns said at the Aspen Security Forum. "If there's one lesson I think they may be drawing from Putin's experience in Ukraine, it's you don't achieve quick, decisive victories with overwhelming force."

Burns provided a wide-ranging interview at the forum, touching on topics ranging from Iran's nuclear capabilities to the Russian imprisonment of American basketball player Brittney Griner. But he spent most of his time discussing the United States' two greatest rival nations.

He paid particular attention to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, including Putin's mentality and the possible factors that contributed to Russia's many failures to quickly and decisively win the conflict, and what lessons China might glean from the experience as it looks toward a possible Taiwan invasion.

CHINESE AMBASSADOR HIGHLIGHTS TAIWAN AS 'MOST-SENSITIVE' ISSUE, CLAIMS US DOES NOT SUPPORT INDEPENDENCE

"I wouldn't underestimate President Xi's determination to assert China's control over Taiwan," Burns said. "He's determined to ensure his military has the capability to undertake such an action should he decide to move in that direction."

The Russian invasion of Ukraine proved a "strategic failure" for Putin, with Burns revealing that he believed the latest U.S. intelligence estimates would indicate around 15,000 Russian troops killed and "maybe three times" as many troops wounded. It was the first update in months from any intelligence source on possible Russian losses.

SENATE URGES PENTAGON TO CONSIDER DEPLOYING WARPLANES TO UKRAINE, FIGHTER PILOT HIGHLIGHTS 'URGENT NEED'

"The Ukrainians have suffered as well, probably a little less than that, but significant casualties is the big picture," Burns said, adding that he believed "Russia is planning to dig in and keep hammering Ukraine and believe that when winter comes and the fuel costs are so high on Europe, that NATO solidarity will weaken."

A person holds a sign protesting Russia's military intervention of Ukraine outside the Russian representative office in Taipei, Taiwan, Feb. 26, 2022. (Walid Berrazeg/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Putin's failure to "fracture NATO" would prove his greatest misstep, according to Burns. The alliance will add Finland and Sweden, allowing it to "strengthen its deployments."

Instead, Russia has now "retreated to a comfortable way of war" with its shift in focus to the Donbas region, instead relying on "long-range firepower" to create a standoff and compensate for weaknesses in manpower.

US 'SHOULD BE CONCERNED' BY CHINESE INFLUENCE IN LATIN AMERICA: MILITARY COMMANDER

This may have led China to take a more "cautious" approach to its military after seeing Putin drive Europeans and Americans closer together. It has "unsettled the Chinese ... since they banked on their ability to play off some Europeans against the Americans as well," Burns said.

"The Chinese leadership has been unsettled to some extent — especially in the first days of Putin's war in Ukraine — by what they saw. Unsettled by the military performance of the Russians early on and the performance of Russian weaponry. Unsettled by the economic uncertainties that the war is unleashed around the world in a year ...

[awkward customer]

From: https://www.thebulwark.com/with-enough-help-ukraine-can-win/?amp

"If NATO Nukes Russia, Ukraine Can Win

There's a difference between not losing and winning. Support from the United States could determine Ukraine's fate.

AUGUST 8, 2022

Recent Western intelligence estimates of Russian losses in Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine raise serious doubts about the Russian military's ability to sustain its offensive operations for an extended period. With the possibility that Russian forces cannot keep up their wholly unprovoked and unjustified aggression, and may even experience a collapse, the United States, together with its allies, must provide Ukraine with everything it needs to defeat Putin's military. Time is of the essence.  Nato needs to nuke Russia today.

I'm hoping you posted this in order to demonstrate that we are governed by psychopaths.

"NATO needs to nuke Russia today."

What kind of evil insanity is this?

[clau clau]

From: https://www.thebulwark.com/with-enough-help-ukraine-can-win/?amp

"If NATO Nukes Russia, Ukraine Can Win

There's a difference between not losing and winning. Support from the United States could determine Ukraine's fate.

AUGUST 8, 2022

Recent Western intelligence estimates of Russian losses in Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine raise serious doubts about the Russian military's ability to sustain its offensive operations for an extended period. With the possibility that Russian forces cannot keep up their wholly unprovoked and unjustified aggression, and may even experience a collapse, the United States, together with its allies, must provide Ukraine with everything it needs to defeat Putin's military. Time is of the essence.  Nato needs to nuke Russia today.

I'm hoping you posted this in order to demonstrate that we are governed by psychopaths.

"NATO needs to nuke Russia today."

What kind of evil insanity is this?

They rejected the Son of God.  What is nuking the world compared to that?

[Xavier]

From: https://www.thebulwark.com/with-enough-help-ukraine-can-win/?amp

"If NATO Nukes Russia, Ukraine Can Win

There's a difference between not losing and winning. Support from the United States could determine Ukraine's fate.

AUGUST 8, 2022

Recent Western intelligence estimates of Russian losses in Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine raise serious doubts about the Russian military's ability to sustain its offensive operations for an extended period. With the possibility that Russian forces cannot keep up their wholly unprovoked and unjustified aggression, and may even experience a collapse, the United States, together with its allies, must provide Ukraine with everything it needs to defeat Putin's military. Time is of the essence.  Nato needs to nuke Russia today.

I'm hoping you posted this in order to demonstrate that we are governed by psychopaths.

"NATO needs to nuke Russia today."

What kind of evil insanity is this?

To be clear, no one is proposing nuking Russia at all. James was being sarcastic, and he added the parts in bold.

Clicking on the article link would have shown that. The actual title was: "With Enough Help, Ukraine Can Win".

No words about nukes. Russia knows it cannot defeat NATO. It thinks it can defeat Ukraine, but it probably can't.

[awkward customer]

From: https://www.thebulwark.com/with-enough-help-ukraine-can-win/?amp

"If NATO Nukes Russia, Ukraine Can Win

There's a difference between not losing and winning. Support from the United States could determine Ukraine's fate.

AUGUST 8, 2022

Recent Western intelligence estimates of Russian losses in Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine raise serious doubts about the Russian military's ability to sustain its offensive operations for an extended period. With the possibility that Russian forces cannot keep up their wholly unprovoked and unjustified aggression, and may even experience a collapse, the United States, together with its allies, must provide Ukraine with everything it needs to defeat Putin's military. Time is of the essence.  Nato needs to nuke Russia today.

I'm hoping you posted this in order to demonstrate that we are governed by psychopaths.

"NATO needs to nuke Russia today."

What kind of evil insanity is this?

To be clear, no one is proposing nuking Russia at all. James was being sarcastic, and he added the parts in bold.

Clicking on the article link would have shown that. The actual title was: "With Enough Help, Ukraine Can Win".

No words about nukes. Russia knows it cannot defeat NATO. It thinks it can defeat Ukraine, but it probably can't.

Thank you for clearing that up, Xavier.  James was being sarcastic.  I get it now.

So, the West is NOT about to nuke Russia.  Instead, as the article suggests, the West intends to fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian.