Bakken winding down

[Heinrich]

My husband (a liberal) says that oil prices have fallen to punish Putin. Any truth to that?

That is what I heard today as well. The effects being that Russian infrastructure, both domestic and militarily, are taking a big hit.

Any of you smart geo-political people want to give their insight as to what the end result might be then, if this is true? Will it crush Putin and the Russian "problem" will all but go away, or will it exacerbate things and cause Mr P to act more drastically?

Chiner might come into play as well. Along with the other BRICs. These things take time, or if identifiable without a doubt, action could be swift and severe. Like a cutting off of European supplies by Russia coupled with and invasion of Ukraine, and Poland. Too many Canadians there for Russian comfort.

[LausTibiChriste]

Hahaha, smart arse...I'll take on the Russian invasion single handedly, yenno, Canadian Navy vet and what not. If they do invade hopefully they do it in the next month when I'm home 

[james03]

It might be part of a strategy to go after Russia.  However we did increase production 4 million barrels per day.  Then they have Iraq ramping up, and Libya has been quietly reentering the market with oil.

The world economy is slowing down dramatically, so you have a glut of oil.  The price has to fall until someone says uncle and the production balances out.

This is a classic case of the Austrian Boom dynamic.  The Fed lowers rate artificially and everyone borrowed and over-drilled.  If rates were 10%, they would be less drilling, and maybe you'd have a price around $85 , but no boom, no bankruptcies and misallocations.

On the plus side, a lot of people have/will benefit from the extra production and lower prices.  They'll stay low until companies start going bankrupt and production comes offline.  Then they'll creep back up.  Probably eventually leveling around the $85 mark.

[Greg]

Get into AI, Machine Learning and computers making any kind of machine intelligence decision from large amounts of data.  This is the next boom in the IT field.  100s of billlions will be spent upgrading and updating systems so that they "learn" what is happening and begin to automate various processes and write their own rules of how to handle exceptions, processes, payments, fraud checking, drug testing, legal compliance etc.  In Banking for example 80% of the current IT spend is focused on compliance related work, meeting regulations and being able to show they have met legal obligations.

During the boom salaries will be high in this sector and the early entrants will be perceived as having "experience", which might simply mean that they have been involved for a year or two more.

I can smell a money trough and this is the next one.

[TPC]

Get into AI, Machine Learning and computers making any kind of machine intelligence decision from large amounts of data.  This is the next boom in the IT field.  100s of billlions will be spent upgrading and updating systems so that they "learn" what is happening and begin to automate various processes and write their own rules of how to handle exceptions, processes, payments, fraud checking, drug testing, legal compliance etc.  In Banking for example 80% of the current IT spend is focused on compliance related work, meeting regulations and being able to show they have met legal obligations.

During the boom salaries will be high in this sector and the early entrants will be perceived as having "experience", which might simply mean that they have been involved for a year or two more.

I can smell a money trough and this is the next one.

No argument here. Although, I would feel like I was selling my soul to obtain that gain. Would consider myself open to persuasion or taking a change in viewpoint (to my perceived moral hesitation).

By the way Greg, have you heard of James Barrat? Written a book over A.I., Artificial Intelligence and the End of the Human Era: Our Final Invention? Perhaps my pessimism or world view is reflected from that influence. I wouldn't be surprised if my take is different several years from now, if not sooner.

[Greg]

Yes, I know about all those worrywarts.  Stephen Hawkin is the latest person to voice his opinion about the machines taking over.

If it is the 'final invention' and some sort of supercomputer takes over and kills or enslaves us (though why it would want us is hard to imagine) then the gospels were wrong and God is not in control.  You don't have a soul to lose.  In which case, why not spend the next few years eating Sirloin steak once a week and living in a nice middle class house in a good part of town and earning enough money to work a 4 day week?  It's inevitable that the machines will take over and become our new masters, or executioners, whether Americans develop them or the Chinese do.  Your involvement ain't going to tip the balance.

The machine will Terminate you whether you are middle class and happily married or poor and single, so you might as well die with a nice steak in your belly having lived a little.

If it isn't the "final invention" and just a new piece of technology, or bump in the road, then why is assisting in supporting it or selling it going to lead to your "selling your soul"?  You are no more to blame for changing the world by earning a decent living in the computer industry, delivering what business want, than some poor person picking i-crap in the Amazon.com wearhouse is for destroying mom&pop businesses on the high street.

If you have a six figure income you can afford a large Catholic family and a stay-at-home wife.  That is worth "selling your soul" for.  At least from Monday to Thursday.  The other 3 days you are free, and comfortably off.

[Kaesekopf]

If you aren't working with your hands and getting dirty, you aren't doing holy work.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I337 using Tapatalk

[clau clau]

Recently I saw a headline that Stephen Hawking believed there is no God.

http://www.cnet.com/news/stephen-hawking-makes-it-clear-there-is-no-god/

I remember at the time thinking of the quote from Einstein

"Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind."

Perhaps all we need now is for Stevie Wonder to embrace Scientology or something.

[james03]

Get into AI, Machine Learning and computers making any kind of machine intelligence decision from large amounts of data.

You want to make a fortune?  Apply voice recognition to some product that retired baby boomers will use.  Voice recognition is just a nice gimmick on a smart phone right now.  Find some real solutions to problems with that and you'll hit a home run.

[james03]

Word came down they are cutting 9 rigs.  So we are going from 17 rigs to 8.  More than 50% cut in activity.  No surprise.  Due to the Uncle Warren charge to run the death trains (Keystone still not approved), Bakken crude is around $35 at the well head.

Today I turned in my resignation.  Most likely my wife will start chemo soon, so I have to be home for her.

Interesting how God timed things in my life.  I was going to lose my job up here anyway, writings on the wall.

Second time I've ever been unemployed.  I really can't work until I find out what's going to happen with my wife.  So I'll actually have a lot of time.  I'd like to do something entrepreneurial, but haven't figured it out yet.  First things first.  If I don't come up with anything, I'll probably go back working "for the man" in an oil refinery.

[Greg]

Why not buy specialised oil business machinery and safety equipment and export it to another part of the world?  There must be a healthy margin in that I would think.

[james03]

Sales ain't my thing.  Thanks for throwing ideas out there though.  Working for the man is going to be tough.  Big companies are full of politically correct hand wringing whiners.  That's a good thing when you are contracting, means there is plenty of business.  But there's a good chance I won't be able to travel coming up if worse comes to worst, so I'll need a regular job.

I'll tell you one true story on sales.  We had this friend who was the best salesman ever, simply because he sold "solving your problem" and didn't b.s. the customer.  The dude has been a millionaire 3 or 4 times.  Only problem is when he makes a million, he gets bored and starts snorting coke.

So my buddy finds Bill all whacked on coke, and actually let's him live with him and cleans him up.  So he's doing good for 2 years and somehow has started a environmental company making serious money.

So I'm talking to our business contact in Venezuela, and it turns out that they are all about oil spill response for some reason, so my contact asks if we can run the oil spill response program.  I say yes and send Bill down there.  We get a meeting set up with the head of PdVsa and Rafiel Ramirez the Oil Minister.

Unfortunately Bill has a stop over in San Juan, where he has some old buddies.  So the day of the meeting approaches and we can't find Bill.  So we stand up the head of PdVsa and the oil minister.  Turns out Bill got with his old buddies and went on a huge coke binge for about a week.

And that's how I lost out on a $50 million contract.  True story.

[Greg]

Yep, happens to lots of salespeople.  Usually booze.

I'm not a substance abuser though.  Steak, youTube and Karaoke keep me happy.

[james03]

I was in need of a laugh:

[Landless Laborer]

James, you're probably the kind of guy who has savings.  Why not stop for a while?  That might seem like a preposterous thought, in fact it may be an opportunity for you to store more important treasure and concentrate on your imperfections.  At least for a time.  Your wife is sick, there's your first order of daily business.   Daily Mass, Rosaries, prayers, works of mercy, cooking, gardening, cleaning, you will wonder how you ever held down a job.   
If we're still here in 2018, go back to work.