Times of India: Denied Easy Victory, Russia reduces goals in Ukraine.

[Xavier]

Excellent Analysis from the Times of India: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/denied-easy-victory-russia-presses-reduced-goals-in-ukraine/articleshow/90324566.cms

"WASHINGTON: The signs are abundant of how Ukraine frustrated Vladimir Putin's hopes for a swift victory, and how Russia's military proved far from ready for the fight.
A truck carrying Russian troops crashes, its doors blown open by a rocket-propelled grenade. Foreign-supplied drones target Russian command posts. Orthodox priests in trailing vestments parade Ukraine's blue and yellow flag in defiance of their Russian captors in the occupied city of Berdyansk.

Russia has lost hundreds of tanks, many left charred or abandoned along the roads, and its death toll is on a pace to outstrip that of the country's previous military campaigns.
Yet more than three weeks into the war, with Putin's initial aim of an easy regime change in Ukraine long gone, Russia's military still has a strong hand. With their greater might and stockpile of city-flattening munitions, Russian forces can fight on for whatever the Russian president may plan next, whether leveraging a negotiated settlement or brute destruction, military analysts warn.

Despite all the determination of Ukraine's people, all the losses among Russia's forces, and all the errors of Russia's leaders, there is no sign that the war will soon be over. Even if he fails to take control of the country, Putin can keep up the punishing attacks on its cities and people.

"His instinct will be always to double down, because he's got himself into a dreadful mess, a huge strategic blunder," said Michael Clarke, former head of the British-based Royal United Services Institute, a defense think tank.

"And I don't think it's in his character to try to retrieve that, except by carrying on, going forward," he said.

Putin's forces in Ukraine are waging Russia's largest, most complex combined military campaign since taking Berlin in 1945. His initial objective, which he announced in a television address on Feb. 24 as the invasion began, was to "demilitarize" Ukraine and save its people from "neo-Nazis," a false description of Ukraine's government, which is led by a Jewish president.

Fatefully, Putin underestimated the national pride and battlefield skills that Ukrainians have built up over the past eight years of battling Russian-backed separatists in the country's east.
At the start, Russians thought "they would install, you know, some pro-Russian government and call it a day and declare victory," said Dmitry Gorenburg, a researcher on Russia's security at the Virginia-based CNA think tank. "That was sort of Plan A, and as near as we can tell, they didn't really have a Plan B."

Russia's first apparent plan - attack key Ukrainian military targets, and make a quick run to Kyiv - failed immediately. It was foiled by Ukraine's defenses along with the countless mistakes and organizational failures by a Russian force that had been told it was only mobilized for military drills.

Clarke, the British researcher, related accounts of Russian troops selling communication equipment and fuel out of military vehicles to locals during the weeks they waited on Ukraine's borders.
With no friendly population to welcome them, Russian forces reverted to tactics from their past offensives in Syria and Chechnya - dropping bombs and lobbing missiles into cities and town, sending millions of men, women and children fleeing.

Putin's forces are in position to capture the besieged port city of Mariupol. Overall, Russians appear to be fighting with three objectives now: to surround Kyiv, to encircle spread-out Ukrainian fighters in the east, and to break through to the major port city of Odessa in the west, said Michael Kofman, an expert on the Russian military and program director at CNA.

Kofman cautions that much of the information on the war is coming from Ukrainians, or their American or other allies. That makes the partial picture skewed, and a full picture impossible.

A senior U.S. defense official on Friday said the Russians have launched more than 1,080 missiles since the start of the war as they remain largely stalled across the country. The official said they retain about 90% of the combat power they had arrayed around Ukraine at the start of the war.

The U.S. assesses that the airspace over Ukraine remains contested, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the military assessments. The Ukrainian air force is continuing to fly aircraft and employ air and missile defense

"Just look at the map, and you just look at how little progress the Russians have been able to make," Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said recently.

The math of military conquests and occupation may be against Putin in Ukraine.

Estimates of Russian deaths vary widely. Yet even conservative figures are in the low thousands. That's a much faster pace than in previous Russian offensives, threatening support for the war among ordinary Russians. Russia had 64 deaths in five days of fighting during its 2008 war with Georgia. It lost about 15,000 in Afghanistan over 10 years, and more than 11,000 over years of fighting in Chechnya.

Russia's number of dead and wounded in Ukraine is nearing the 10% benchmark of diminished combat effectiveness, Gorenburg said. The reported battlefield deaths of four Russian generals - out of an estimated 20 in the fight - signal impaired command, he said.
Researchers tracking only those Russian equipment losses that were photographed or recorded on video say Russia has lost more than 1,500 tanks, trucks, mounted equipment and other heavy gear. Two out of three of those were captured or abandoned, signaling the failings of the Russian troops that let them go.

Meanwhile, Russia needs to limit its use of smart, long-range missiles in case they're needed in any larger war with NATO, military analysts say.

When it comes to the grinding job of capturing and holding cities, conventional military metrics suggest Russia needs a 5-to-1 advantage in urban fighting, analysts say. Meanwhile, the formula for ruling a restive territory in the face of armed opposition is 20 fighters for every 1,000 people - or 800,000 Russian troops for Ukraine's more than 40 million people, Clarke notes. That's almost as many as Russia's entire active-duty military of 900,000.

On the ground, that means controlling any substantial chunk of Ukrainian territory long-term would take more resources than Russia could foreseeably commit.

Other Russian options remain possible, including a negotiated settlement. Moscow is demanding that Ukraine formally embrace neutrality, thus swearing off any alliance with NATO, and recognize the independence of the separatist regions in the east and Russian sovereignty over Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.

Russia's other options include an unrelenting air campaign in which it bombs and depopulates cities as it did in Chechnya and Syria. U.S. officials also warn of the risk of Russian chemical attacks, and the threat of escalation to nuclear war.

"Unless the Russians intend to be completely genocidal - they could flatten all the major cities, and Ukrainians will will rise up against Russian occupation - there will be just constant guerrilla war" if Russian troops remain, Clarke said."

[james03]

Your subject said that Russia is reducing its goals.  Do you have ANY cite of Russia stating its goals including capturing the entire country or occupying cities?  The answer is no.

So how do you know they have "reduced their goals"?

[Xavier]

Well, if we analyze Russia's recent demands, such as this one 3 days ago, we say there are some face-saving elements like "protection for the Russian language in Ukraine". While a legitimate concern, is such really worth a war? Putin seems to have no strategy whatsoever. He is making it up as he goes along, and reducing demands when it seems like he can't get more than he wants.

"Chief among them is an acceptance by Ukraine that it should be neutral and should not apply to join Nato. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has already conceded this.

There are other demands in this category which mostly seem to be face-saving elements for the Russian side

Ukraine would have to undergo a disarmament process to ensure it wasn't a threat to Russia. There would have to be protection for the Russian language in Ukraine. And there is something called de-Nazification ...

The second category is where the difficulty will lie, and in his phone call, Mr Putin said that it would need face-to-face negotiations between him and President Zelensky before agreement could be reached on these points. Mr Zelensky has already said he's prepared to meet the Russian president and negotiate with him one-to-one."

Here's an excellent article on why the first demand of not wanting Ukraine to join NATO is a Red Herring. Other countries weren't part of NATO, and Putin had no problem attacking them whatsoever. Putin is a Dictator and a Thug imho.

"To European advocates of realpolitik, the idea of a neutral Ukraine may sound like an easy sell. However, the logic underpinning this argument is fatally flawed. It assumes Putin would be satisfied with Ukrainian neutrality and would then agree to leave the country in peace.

In reality, recent history tells a very different story. Ukraine officially adopted non-aligned status in 2010, thereby ruling out any future NATO membership bid. This neutrality did not prevent Putin from invading Ukraine just four years later.

The experience of Ukraine's neighbor Moldova is also telling. The country has never actively sought NATO membership and even enshrined neutrality in its 1994 Constitution. Nevertheless, Russian forces continue to occupy Moldova's Transnistria region, while Chisinau is a routine target of economic coercion and political interference by the Kremlin."

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russia-demands-security-guarantees-but-what-putin-really-wants-is-ukraine/

[james03]

So I take it the answer is "No", you don't have any cite of initial Russian goals that have now been "reduced".

Doesn't that register with you?

We know the Russian strategic objective:

1.  Ukraine blocked from NATO.
2.  Independent east.

That was from day one.

[Xavier]

There were many reports that Russia wanted a Puppet Government in Kyiv, even before the War started. For e.g.

"Vladimir Putin plotting to install a pro-Russian puppet leader in Ukraine, UK Government warns

January 22, 2022 10:30 pm(Updated January 23, 2022 11:13 am)
Russia is plotting to install a pro-Russian leader in Kyiv, the UK Government has claimed, as tensions between Ukraine and Russia grow.

The British Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) has taken the extraordinary step of publicly airing claims that former Ukrainian MP Yevhen Murayev could be imposed as head of state in Ukraine if the current pro-Western government is toppled.

Mr Murayev, a media owner, has previously spoken out in support of Russia's annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. He lost his seat in the Ukrainian parliament when his party failed to secure 5 per cent of the vote in elections in 2019."

Taken from: https://inews.co.uk/news/world/russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-planning-install-pro-russia-leader-1417484

I think Russia has been forced to deal with reality that Mr. Murayev and its other Pawns and Puppets are not going to be President. If Putin really meant "Russia and Ukraine are one people", he would respect their right to self-determination and leave them alone imho.

[King Wenceslas]

Russia will reduce each major city to rubble, capture it, then move on to the next unless peace breaks out.

Or the number of Russian dead goes above 30,000 (30,000 to 50,000). Then the Russian army will break and Ukraine wins.

[Xavier]

Here's A Clear Proof Thug Putin doesn't care in the least about Christianity or Religion, not even Orthodox Christian Churches (which even we Catholics respect as truly containing Our Lord's Real Presence, since the Orthodox Church has a Valid Priesthood and Valid Holy Eucharist). Thug Putin is guilty of terrible sacrileges and crimes against religion for destroying Christian Churches like this.

"The 51-year-old major archbishop, based in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, has issued daily video messages since the start of the invasion.

In his address on March 20, he said that churches were being destroyed amid the fighting.

"In these 25 days, almost 44 churches and religious buildings have been destroyed," he said.

"It is strange that the majority of these churches belong today to the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate."

The Moscow Patriarchate is the seat of the Russian Orthodox Church.

In his March 19 message, Archbishop Shevchuk noted that Catholics in Ukraine and Russia were preparing for Pope Francis' consecration of the two countries to the Immaculate Heart of Mary on March 25.

Invoking Mary's intercession, he said: "Receive under your protection our Ukrainian people. As a good mother, help to be victorious over the war in Ukraine."

https://www.ncregister.com/cna/ukrainian-catholic-leader-accuses-russia-of-genocide-in-beseiged-city-of-mariupol

Thug. Mark my words, thug Putin, sooner or later, the Judgment of God will fall upon you for desecrating the Holy Eucharist like this.

I would guess that once Russia is consecrated, Heaven will help Ukraine defend herself in some extra-ordinary manner against Russia.

After that, the conversion of hearts and minds within Russia will start. Who knows, God Almighty may even strike Thug Putin dead.

[Xavier]

More bad news for Putin, more Good News for Anti-War folk who want this Carnage to end quickly, and World Peace to ensue.

"A group of Russian soldiers captured during the war in Ukraine have spoken out against their President Vladimir Putin, saying 'he will not be able to take over Ukraine'."

https://www.dnaindia.com/world/video-russia-ukraine-war-captured-russian-soldiers-cry-call-putin-a-liar-2941335

[Xavier]

"'PM Modi used all contacts to end Russia-Ukraine war': Australian envoy to India reveals

In an endorsement of India's approach towards the Russia-Ukraine war, Australia acknowledged that PM Modi had used all his contacts to end the conflict.

In an endorsement of India's approach towards the Russia-Ukraine war, Australia acknowledged that PM Modi had used all his contacts to try and end the conflict. This comes amid disquiet in the West over India's refusal to outrightly condemn Russia's aggression and abstain from resolutions tabled on the Russia-Ukraine war in the UN Security Council as well as the UN General Assembly."

https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-crisis/pm-modi-used-all-contacts-to-end-russia-ukraine-war-australian-envoy-to-india-reveals-articleshow.html

[AlNg]

More bad news for Putin, more Good News for Anti-War folk who want this Carnage to end quickly, and World Peace to ensue.

"A group of Russian soldiers captured during the war in Ukraine have spoken out against their President Vladimir Putin, saying 'he will not be able to take over Ukraine'."

https://www.dnaindia.com/world/video-russia-ukraine-war-captured-russian-soldiers-cry-call-putin-a-liar-2941335

Torturing or coercing prisoners of war to make statements is a war crime and contrary to the Geneva Conventions:
"Every prisoner of war, when questioned on the subject, is bound to give only his surname, first names and rank, date of birth, and army, regimental, personal or serial number,..."
"No physical or mental torture, nor any other form of coercion, may be inflicted on prisoners of war to secure from them information of any kind whatever."
http://hrlibrary.umn.edu/instree/y3gctpw.htm

[King Wenceslas]

Ukraine:  Syria in Europe