Inflation has just begun

Started by james03, May 14, 2021, 12:52:47 PM

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james03

May 14, 2021, 12:52:47 PM
My prediction is $3/gal gasoline Biden's first year and $4/gal. by the time his term ends.  I'm not taking credit for the current $3 price due to the pipeline, but I'm still very confident in the prediction.

We all enjoyed our UBI/MMT/Biden bucks stimmy checks.  A one off payout.  Now we will be stuck with these higher prices forever.  Food is getting crazy, rents, medical, cars, homes, tuition, gasoline, and now this:



But on the bright side, we bailed out Illinois, California, New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey.  There's no such thing as a free lunch.  Printing money has to show up somewhere, and we're seeing it in higher prices.
"But he that doth not believe, is already judged: because he believeth not in the name of the only begotten Son of God (Jn 3:18)."

"All sorrow leads to the foot of the Cross.  Weep for your sins."

"Although He should kill me, I will trust in Him"

Tennessean

#1
May 14, 2021, 07:04:03 PM
It was a couple dollars /sheet in 2019.

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DigitalLogos

#2
May 14, 2021, 07:18:52 PM
That price for a 4x8 is absolutely insane. What? Did we run short of trees or something?  :huh:

I guess my wage adjustment came through just in time to compensate for inflation. In a few months I can go from having a comfortable budget to just scraping by like in 2020. Thanks Joe!

The masses will be clamoring for the Great Reset as the "solution" once almost no one can afford basic living expenses.
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mikemac

#3
May 14, 2021, 07:22:42 PM
Build Back Bitter
Like John Vennari (RIP) said "Why not just do it?  What would it hurt?"
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GiftOfGod

#4
May 14, 2021, 09:11:53 PM
I hate Biden but it's a common Republican tactic to blame all economic woes on new Dem Presidents. Remember the Bush Administration running deficits for 8 years because "deficits don't matter"? But deficits did matter all of a sudden when Obama won. The Trump Administration saw massive spending, lower taxes, and a big deficit. The national debt is cumulative, and it's been added to - non-stop - since 2001. 4 months of Biden didn't do this any more than 4 years of Trump did.

And regarding lumbar prices, it's a little more complicated: logging and mill operations slowed or ceased during COVID while the COVID restrictions also caused the household savings rate to reach recent highs. Since people were stuck in their homes, they wanted to fix them up or make them bigger. The Fed's historically low near-zero interest rate policies and buying up $2 trillion of mortgage-backed securities have made it the best time to refinance in years. Basically: low lumbar supply caused by COVID and high lumbar demand, also caused by COVID.

But inflationary pressures are being felt throughout the economy, just not as bad as lumbar.
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andy

#5
May 14, 2021, 09:21:30 PM
From what I hear from my sources there is absolutely no shortage of lumber. Prices are bumped artificially.

Insanis

#6
May 15, 2021, 06:27:23 AM
Inflation began a long time ago. It is called "monetary policy".

As far as gas goes, it is higher than it was in recent years. I think the high point was in 2012, but I am going by absolute numbers, not adjusted for inflation.

Also, a singular price tag from a single place is not an indication.

The last year or so has disrupted certain supply chains (for one reason or another) and it is causing pricing issues on particular items.

Maybe it will drive inflation, but inflation has been lower than targeted for a while.

james03

#7
May 15, 2021, 11:19:42 AM
QuoteFrom what I hear from my sources there is absolutely no shortage of lumber. Prices are bumped artificially.

Thank you for posting this.  This is why the statists have swung from socialism to fascism.  With socialism, the government gets the blame.  With fascism, you get the same statism, but you keep the scapegoats around.  And here we have a leftist blaming "them" for bumping prices artificially.
"But he that doth not believe, is already judged: because he believeth not in the name of the only begotten Son of God (Jn 3:18)."

"All sorrow leads to the foot of the Cross.  Weep for your sins."

"Although He should kill me, I will trust in Him"

james03

#8
May 15, 2021, 11:37:37 AM Last Edit: May 15, 2021, 11:41:19 AM by james03
QuoteI hate Biden but it's a common Republican tactic to blame all economic woes on new Dem Presidents. Remember the Bush Administration running deficits for 8 years because "deficits don't matter"? But deficits did matter all of a sudden when Obama won. The Trump Administration saw massive spending, lower taxes, and a big deficit. The national debt is cumulative, and it's been added to - non-stop - since 2001.
A lot longer than that.  I believe Eisenhower was the last President with at least a balanced budget.

After that, it was actually Newt Gingrich that insisted on balanced budgets.  (It was only balanced on paper, debt still went up, but Newt did do a fantastic job).  They try to give Clinton the credit, but during Clinton's first term he blew out the deficit.  Newt came in and did a good job.

Repubs are bad on blowing money on the military.  Democrats on socialist policies.  Repubs are better, but they don't get passing grades on spending.  But in fairness to the Repubs, when there is a Repub President, he usually has only a narrow majority in Congress at best, and any serious fiscal reform gets blocked by filibuster in the Senate.  This is why Trump was never going to outlaw chain migration and anchor babies.  Schumer set a record on filibustering.

Quote4 months of Biden didn't do this any more than 4 years of Trump did.
He gets the blame for the current insanity.  The deficit will be on the order of $4 Trillion this year.

QuoteThe Fed's historically low near-zero interest rate policies and buying up $2 trillion of mortgage-backed securities have made it the best time to refinance in years. Basically: low lumbar supply caused by COVID and high lumbar demand, also caused by COVID. Fed printing and government spending.
COVID is a virus.  It doesn't buy lumber.  So looking at this from an economics perspective, people who weren't producing because of COVID wanted to buy lumber.  By "buy" we mean exchanger value-for-value.  And they got their lumber and exchanged ZERO production for it, just printed pieces of paper they got from the government.  This is the engine of price inflation.

The market is ultimately governed by physical laws as well as more general philosophical laws, like non-contradiction.  In a world where production drops, people shouldn't be able to buy anything.  This is the law of non-contradiction.  And yet they do.  What is happening is the stored value in dollars is being used up.  So someone with retirement savings is losing his retirement, even if his balance goes up.  The market will always restore equilibrium, and one way is higher prices.
"But he that doth not believe, is already judged: because he believeth not in the name of the only begotten Son of God (Jn 3:18)."

"All sorrow leads to the foot of the Cross.  Weep for your sins."

"Although He should kill me, I will trust in Him"

james03

#9
May 15, 2021, 11:45:57 AM Last Edit: May 15, 2021, 11:56:51 AM by james03
QuoteMaybe it will drive inflation, but inflation has been lower than targeted for a while.

CPI just printed and it set a record going back to the 80's (excluding the housing bubble blow off top).  And this is after all the adjustments were made to it.  Using the old metrics, we are likely in record high territory of the 70's.  There is a dude who posts government statistics using the old metrics.  His site is shadowstats.  The pre adjusted number is 8% for the 1990 forumula and 10% for the 1982 formula.

Whether we use the new 4.2% or the previous formula 8% or 10%, we have price inflation.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
"But he that doth not believe, is already judged: because he believeth not in the name of the only begotten Son of God (Jn 3:18)."

"All sorrow leads to the foot of the Cross.  Weep for your sins."

"Although He should kill me, I will trust in Him"

TandJ

#10
May 15, 2021, 06:05:45 PM Last Edit: May 15, 2021, 06:15:20 PM by TandJ
There's a ton of building material shortages like vinyl, glass and aluminum that is raising the price a substantial amount. We finished building last June and if we were to finish this June it would have cost us 150,000 more for the same house

james03

#11
May 15, 2021, 07:20:35 PM
We're trying to source some aluminum parts at work for a project.  16 week delivery.
"But he that doth not believe, is already judged: because he believeth not in the name of the only begotten Son of God (Jn 3:18)."

"All sorrow leads to the foot of the Cross.  Weep for your sins."

"Although He should kill me, I will trust in Him"

Insanis

#12
May 15, 2021, 07:25:47 PM Last Edit: May 16, 2021, 10:42:12 AM by Insanis
A lot of things are in short supply for one reason or another. Try buying a graphics card for a reasonable price. My computer is "worth" far more now than when I built it.

Heinrich

#13
May 16, 2021, 09:50:23 AM
Quote from: andy on May 14, 2021, 09:21:30 PM
From what I hear from my sources there is absolutely no shortage of lumber. Prices are bumped artificially.

The guys at the mill near me are working 60 hours a week. They have a sign out front offering money for home harvested trees. I think what Gift wrote right.
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drummerboy

#14
May 16, 2021, 03:38:29 PM
Quote from: james03 on May 15, 2021, 11:19:42 AM
QuoteFrom what I hear from my sources there is absolutely no shortage of lumber. Prices are bumped artificially.

Thank you for posting this.  This is why the statists have swung from socialism to fascism.  With socialism, the government gets the blame.  With fascism, you get the same statism, but you keep the scapegoats around.  And here we have a leftist blaming "them" for bumping prices artificially.

From my days working at a large Midwest home improvement store, I remember that lumber is treated as a commodity just like oil, and if prices get too low the "lumber barons" like to jack it just because they can.  As for this recent lumber spike, I believe Canada is retaliating for Biden axing the Keystone Pipeline.
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