Author Topic: Campaign Thread  (Read 12497 times)

Offline christulsa

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Re: Campaign Thread
« Reply #75 on: October 22, 2020, 10:35:19 PM »
Trump clearly won.  More presidential/level-headed this time, tough on Hunter-gate.   But not like he needed to be, compared to how he came back in the second debate against Hillary.  He should have come down like a hammer on Biden taking illegal $ through Hunter, citing the evidence from the laptop.
 

Offline Graham

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Re: Campaign Thread
« Reply #76 on: October 22, 2020, 10:37:18 PM »
Wow, Biden just said he would shut down the oil industry. And idiots think Texas is going blue? He is getting clobbered and scoring own goals left and right.
 
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Offline Miriam_M

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Re: Campaign Thread
« Reply #77 on: October 22, 2020, 11:23:54 PM »
What did people here think of Biden's frequent laughing at Trump?  I found it disrespectful and thought it not a good idea.
 
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Offline Greg

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Re: Campaign Thread
« Reply #78 on: October 23, 2020, 05:38:05 AM »
 
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Offline Reader

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Re: Campaign Thread
« Reply #79 on: October 23, 2020, 07:12:22 AM »
What did people here think of Biden's frequent laughing at Trump?  I found it disrespectful and thought it not a good idea.

This has long been his "go to" weapon for covering his own ignorance, and it has never looked good on him. It's condescending, adolescent, and very telling. You'd have to be a die-hard Joe fan or very childish to think it works for him.
 

Offline drummerboy

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Re: Campaign Thread
« Reply #80 on: October 23, 2020, 12:39:22 PM »
Can any of the Trump election win doubters please tell me why they expect Trump to loose?  I myself am cautiously optimistic he will win, while having full faith in the stupidity of the masses to deliver a Biden win.  However, all the indications point to this being a repeat of 2016, although more in Trump's favor in 2020. 

1. RealClearPolitics’ polls, and the most independent polls, seem to point to a probable loss. For what they are worth.

2. This country is worse spiritually/morally/culturally despite Trump’s 2016 election.  Conservatives are stronger, but the mainstream has slid deeper into the abyss.   We don’t deserve a second miracle, imo, maybe God thinks we do.  My sense is we can expect more chastisement in light of the “pandemic”/economic crisis, and a Trump loss fits that.

3. I pray this is wrong of course, but what evidence is there that Trump will probably win??  Besides wishful thinking. 

4.  The only factor I can think in favor of Trump is those Trump supporters in the “silent majority” who refused to participate in the polls, who will still vote for Trump, especially in the swing states to win the electoral college.

Thank you.  The polls are somewhat concerning, but then again not.  The polls, as far as I know, measure what would be the popular vote, and Trump did not gain that in 16' but won through electoral votes, so its reasonable to expect Biden with a slight lead.  Also, the few polls that did predict a Trump in 16' are again predicting a Trump win.  But yes, polls can be wrong.
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Offline drummerboy

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Re: Campaign Thread
« Reply #81 on: October 23, 2020, 12:42:20 PM »
What did people here think of Biden's frequent laughing at Trump?  I found it disrespectful and thought it not a good idea.

This has long been his "go to" weapon for covering his own ignorance, and it has never looked good on him. It's condescending, adolescent, and very telling. You'd have to be a die-hard Joe fan or very childish to think it works for him.

Kamala was far worse in the VP debate.  Joe "the big guy" Biden also has to play tough to appear stronger than Trump, hence the anomaly of a candidate for office habitually insulting his would be voter base.

I personally loved Trump pressing the question of "who built the cages Joe?"  Biden's silence does not help either
The bee is small among flying things, but her fruit hath the chiefest sweetness - Ecclesiasticus 3:11
 

Offline mikemac

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Re: Campaign Thread
« Reply #82 on: October 23, 2020, 04:22:51 PM »
I was hoping Hunter's laptop was stressed more than it was in the debate.  The moderator tried to overlook it as if Trump was lying.  And the media is saying there was lots of lying in the debate.  Has there been a formal investigation started by any police force on Hunter's laptop?  If not there needs to be one started right now.
Like John Vennari (RIP) said "Why not just do it?  What would it hurt?"
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Offline christulsa

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Re: Campaign Thread
« Reply #83 on: October 23, 2020, 05:09:56 PM »

Pretty damning.  Any other evidence to suggest Biden is a pedophile?  If so, that would be thread worthy.  10 days to go.
 

Offline Greg

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Re: Campaign Thread
« Reply #84 on: October 24, 2020, 09:56:11 AM »
More degeneracy.


No graphics but contains descriptions of his pedo antics.
 

Offline Heinrich

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Re: Campaign Thread
« Reply #85 on: October 24, 2020, 10:13:19 AM »

Pretty damning.  Any other evidence to suggest Biden is a pedophile?  If so, that would be thread worthy.  10 days to go.

10 days until you leave again for good until next month?
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Offline KonservativerKatholik

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Re: Campaign Thread
« Reply #86 on: October 24, 2020, 10:53:32 AM »
More degeneracy.


No graphics but contains descriptions of his pedo antics.

His own niece?!!  :ack:
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Offline Greg

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Re: Campaign Thread
« Reply #87 on: October 24, 2020, 07:48:36 PM »

3 Catholic nuns in habits saying the Rosary behind Trump.
 
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Offline Miriam_M

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Re: Campaign Thread
« Reply #88 on: October 24, 2020, 09:29:04 PM »

3 Catholic nuns in habits saying the Rosary behind Trump.


I wonder if those were the same two women Religious in black Maga masks right I saw right behind him.  (The clip is not returning to its starting point yet.)

Anyway, I loved it when I watched it live.
 

Offline Miriam_M

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Re: Campaign Thread
« Reply #89 on: October 25, 2020, 02:56:54 AM »
Trafalgar Group polls: outliers with uncanny knack for accurately sampling Trump vote

Maverick pollster Robert Cahaly has honed techniques for finding Trump voters veiled by "social-desirability bias."

The Trafalgar Group, a Georgia-based polling firm known for its ability to correctly sample hard-to-reach, conservative Trump voters, shows President Trump with leads in the key battleground states of North Carolina, Florida and Michigan.

During the 2016 presidential race — widely predicted wrong by the mainstream polling establishment —the Trafalgar Group was the only pollster within the RealClearPolitics polling aggregator to show candidate Donald Trump defeating rival Hillary Clinton in Michigan. Their polls in 2016 also showed Donald Trump winning Pennsylvania — again, they were nearly alone in projecting Trump's narrow victory there — and thus taking the White House.

RealClearPolitics founder and president Tom Bevan recently praised the accuracy of Trafalgar's chief pollster Robert Cahaly's prognosticating abilities.
"Cahaly's success continued in 2018, most conspicuously in Florida," Bevan wrote. "He was one of the few pollsters whose data showed Ron DeSantis beating Andrew Gillum in the Florida gubernatorial race and Rick Scott besting incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson in the Senate race. Cahaly's firm, the Trafalgar Group, has emerged from the last two political cycles as one of the most accurate polling operations in America."

Cahaly last week posted a North Carolina poll showing Trump with a slight lead over Biden, though most other pollsters in the RCP average had Biden ahead.

What is driving Trafalgar's sixth sense? Cahaly has spoken publicly about what he calls "hidden" Trump voters, who face what he calls a "social-desirability bias," where conservative and independent Trump voters feel marginalized and fearful about expressing their support for the president due to social stigma in media and social media. Cahaly told RealClearPolitics this bias in 2020 is "worse than it was four years ago."

Even Trump's harshest opponents say there's likely truth to this supposition about "shy" Trump voters.
"It is historically difficult to defeat an incumbent president, No. 1," Steve Schmidt, a vocal Trump critic from the Lincoln Project and former campaign adviser to the late John McCain, told MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell. "I suspect that there is at least a point or two of undercount for Trump voters."
Cahaly has honed several techniques for capturing this "shy" Trump vote, including asking respondents not only how they themselves will vote, but also how they think their neighbors plan to vote. Cahaly's rationale is this gives these more guarded voters a more socially acceptable method for expressing their own feelings, by projecting them onto others.

"I grew up in the South, and everybody is very polite down here, and if you want to find out the truth on a hot topic, you can't just ask the question directly," Cahaly told POLITICO Magazine. "So, the neighbor is part of the mechanism to get that real answer. In the 11 battleground states, and 3 non-battleground, there was a significant drop-off between the ballot test question [which candidate you support] and the neighbors' question [which candidate you believe most of your neighbors support]. The neighbors question result showed a similar result in each state: Hillary dropped [relative to the ballot test question] and Trump comes up across every demographic, every geography. Hillary's drop was between 3 and 11 percent while Trump's increase was between 3 and 7 percent. This pattern existed everywhere from Pennsylvania to Nevada to Utah to Georgia, and it was a constant."

Cahaly said his team also noticed over time during the 2016 GOP primary that automated "push-button" polls — those done by machine instead of a live, human caller — were more precise at capturing Trump supporters, another possible indicator of "social-desirability bias."

"Every single time we polled in the primary, the push-button said 4.5 points better for Trump," Cahaly also told POLITICO. "And obviously, we didn't know until the primary election that the push-button would always be right. The push-button had a much wider universe and it was right. In every single one of those situations, it was more accurate. I mean, it was the most accurate poll in South Carolina, most accurate poll in Georgia, second-most accurate in Florida, and we noticed the pattern. And so, we took what we learned in the primary and we put that information in the general election balloting."

On Twitter, Cahaly routinely goes after mainstream media and polling companies for either criticizing Trafalgar results or lagging far behind Trafalgar in spotting trends that Cahaly's team identified long before.
Cahaly recently challenged prominent pollster Nate Silver of 538 (which currently grades Trafalgar's methodology a C+) to a bet on the accuracy of each man's presidential polling outcome accuracy. Cahaly's comments came after Silver said, "I would not bet" on Trafalgar "being right this year."

Last month, Trafalgar polling showing Trump within a half-percentage point of Biden in Minnesota and ahead by about one point in Wisconsin and Michigan. When the Michigan poll was released, Cahaly Tweeted: "Doubt what we @trafalgar_group say about #MI #Elections2020 at your own peril. History is not on your side."

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/polling/trafalgar-group-pollsters-find-hard-reach-trump-voters-shows-potus-ahead

 
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